Brentford v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 6
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 2
xG per shot
0.27 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.77 – 0.83
Goals − xG
-0.75 – +0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
70.7%
Draw
16.5%
Burnley win
12.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.57–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.65–0.89 | 2-0 10% | 69% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 3.75 xGBurnley 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 13' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 18' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 20' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 32' |
 Burnley |
Hannibal Mejbri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Quilindschy Hartman |
| 43' |
Burnley |
Hannibal Mejbri | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Brentford |
Aaron Hickey | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 54' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sepp van den Berg |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 57' |
Burnley |
Quilindschy Hartman | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 80' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 84' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 85' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Josh Laurent |
| 91' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jordan Henderson |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Quilindschy Hartman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Cullen DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lyle Foster AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Florentino Luís DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hannibal Mejbri AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaidon Anthony Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Laurent Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| Jordan Henderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.78 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Mathias Jensen DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.78 |
| Aaron Hickey DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Rico Henry Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Reiss Nelson Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |