Brentford v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Brentford

15:00

Chelsea

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 299h before kick-off

Brentford win

47.1%

model 43.7%

Draw

22.8%

model 23.6%

Chelsea win

30.1%

model 32.7%

472330

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.7%
2-1 9.0%
1-2 7.6%
1-0 7.5%
2-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.3%	Under 2.5	39.7%
BTTS yes	62.0%	BTTS no	38.0%
Brentford 1+	81.5%	Brentford 2+	50.2%
Chelsea 1+	76.1%	Chelsea 2+	41.9%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.43. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

96/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 in 2nd half

Over/Under 2HT · usually 76%

82.1% fair odds 1.22

moderate signal · 1544 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Over 0.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 73%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Brentford have created 1.91 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.74.
At home Brentford average 2.36 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Chelsea were missing 0.82 expected goal involvements a match against 0.30.

Risk factors

Chelsea have scored 2.20 a match from 1.53 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Brentford have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 30.1% for Chelsea and 22.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.69 for Brentford and 1.43 for Chelsea.

Why Brentford

Brentford have created 1.91 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.74. At home Brentford average 2.36 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Chelsea were missing 0.82 expected goal involvements a match against 0.30.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Chelsea can win

Chelsea have created 1.53 xG a match over their last five while Brentford have allowed 1.82. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Chelsea average 1.15 xG a match. They have had 19 days' rest to Brentford's 13.

Key players

Brentford's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Thiago (0.66), Kevin Schade (0.37), Dango Ouattara (0.35). Chelsea's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: João Pedro (0.57), Cole Palmer (0.48), Morgan Rogers (0.47).

Availability

Chelsea changed goalkeeper for their last match. 27% of Chelsea's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Brentford: 48% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.51 xG a match from set pieces. Chelsea: 43% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Brentford are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Confidence 96/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DDLWLDDWDD last 10 scored 14 from 19.1 xG conceded 12 from 18.2 xG

Chelsea are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLLDWLWW last 10 scored 12 from 15.3 xG conceded 22 from 17.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	442433	1.69–1.43	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	482527	1.86–1.35	1-1 11%	62%	63%
dc-xg	412236	1.78–1.67	1-1 9%	67%	67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford to win	46.4%	47.5%	43.1%	1.10×	2.11
Chelsea to win	32.5%	30.4%	32.3%	0.94×	3.29
Draw	21.1%	24.4%	24.6%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford & both teams score	30.5%	29.7%	22.8%	1.30×	3.37
Chelsea & both teams score	22.0%	21.9%	15.6%	1.41×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	17.9%	19.9%	0.90×	5.58
Brentford & not both score	15.9%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Chelsea & not both score	10.5%	13.2%	16.9%	0.79×	7.55
Draw & not both score	2.3%	4.9%	4.8%	1.02×	20.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford & over 1.5	41.6%	40.3%	36.7%	1.10×	2.48
Brentford & over 2.5	36.7%	34.9%	30.2%	1.16×	2.86
Chelsea & over 1.5	28.5%	26.0%	25.5%	1.02×	3.84
Chelsea & over 2.5	25.1%	26.0%	20.0%	1.30×	3.84
Brentford & over 3.5	24.9%	21.6%	16.4%	1.32×	4.62
Brentford & under 3.5	21.5%	21.6%	26.8%	0.81×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Chelsea & over 3.5	16.3%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.56
Chelsea & under 3.5	16.2%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & over 2.5	10.6%	12.9%	8.5%	1.52×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	10.5%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.78
Draw & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	8.5%	1.52×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	10.5%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.78
Brentford & under 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	13.0%	0.61×	12.69
Chelsea & under 2.5	7.3%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.69
Brentford & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	6.5%	0.74×	20.93
Chelsea & under 1.5	4.0%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	2.3%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford (1UP)	65.8%	69.9%	62.2%	1.12×	1.43
Chelsea (1UP)	54.6%	52.9%	51.3%	1.03×	1.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford (2UP)	46.4%	49.8%	44.9%	1.11×	2.01
Chelsea (2UP)	32.5%	31.0%	34.6%	0.90×	3.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford to win 2nd half	35.0%	34.5%	36.4%	0.95×	2.90
Chelsea to win 2nd half	34.0%	34.5%	32.9%	1.05×	2.90
2nd half drawn	31.1%	34.4%	30.8%	1.12×	2.91

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (+2.5)	87.3%	88.5%	89.2%	0.99×	1.13
Chelsea (+1.5)	73.4%	73.7%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Brentford (+0.5)	67.5%	68.7%	67.7%	1.02×	1.46
Chelsea (+0.5)	53.6%	52.4%	56.9%	0.92×	1.91
Brentford (-0.5)	46.4%	47.6%	43.1%	1.11×	2.10
Chelsea (-0.5)	32.5%	31.3%	32.3%	0.97×	3.20
Brentford (-1.5)	26.6%	26.3%	24.0%	1.10×	3.80
Brentford (-2.5)	12.7%	11.5%	10.8%	1.07×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede	87.2%	86.5%	78.4%	1.10×	1.16
Chelsea clean sheet	12.8%	13.5%	21.6%	0.63×	7.39

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede in 1st half	65.3%	69.9%	51.4%	1.36×	1.43
Chelsea clean sheet in 1st half	34.7%	30.1%	48.6%	0.62×	3.32

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 2.5 corners	87.0%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Chelsea over 3.5 corners	75.1%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Chelsea under 6.5 corners	66.2%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Chelsea over 4.5 corners	61.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Chelsea under 5.5 corners	53.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Chelsea over 5.5 corners	46.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Chelsea under 4.5 corners	39.0%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Chelsea over 6.5 corners	33.8%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Chelsea under 3.5 corners	24.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Chelsea under 2.5 corners	13.0%	15.1%	—	—	6.63

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 3.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Chelsea over 0.5 goals	81.8%	81.5%	74.9%	1.09×	1.23
Chelsea under 2.5 goals	75.6%	76.2%	84.9%	0.90×	1.31
Chelsea over 1.5 goals	50.8%	53.7%	39.4%	1.36×	1.86
Chelsea under 1.5 goals	49.2%	46.3%	60.6%	0.76×	2.16
Chelsea over 2.5 goals	24.4%	23.8%	15.1%	1.58×	4.20
Chelsea under 0.5 goals	18.2%	18.5%	25.1%	0.74×	5.40
Chelsea over 3.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	5.5%	1.40×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 1st half	83.6%	83.5%	89.1%	0.94×	1.20
Chelsea over 0.5 in 1st half	51.5%	55.8%	40.6%	1.37×	1.79
Chelsea under 0.5 in 1st half	48.5%	44.2%	59.4%	0.75×	2.26
Chelsea over 1.5 in 1st half	16.4%	16.5%	10.9%	1.52×	6.06

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford (away no bet)	68.7%	66.5%	63.6%	1.05×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	31.3%	33.5%	36.4%	0.92×	2.99

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea even goals	51.7%	52.7%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Chelsea odd goals	48.3%	47.3%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	68.7%	72.3%	80.1%	0.90×	1.38
Both halves over 1.5 goals	31.3%	27.7%	19.9%	1.39×	3.62

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	80.7%	76.8%	70.2%	1.09×	1.30
Both halves under 1.5 goals	19.3%	23.2%	29.8%	0.78×	4.31

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	72.0%	71.8%	61.5%	1.17×	1.39
Brentford to score 2+ in a row	48.6%	46.1%	39.1%	1.18×	2.17
Chelsea to score 2+ in a row	37.4%	36.3%	29.9%	1.21×	2.76
Either team to score 3+ in a row	31.8%	28.5%	26.3%	1.09×	3.51
Brentford to score 3+ in a row	20.3%	19.3%	16.5%	1.17×	5.19
Chelsea to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.0%	10.2%	1.18×	8.34

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea corners (+3.5)	88.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Chelsea corners (+2.5)	82.8%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Brentford corners (+3.5)	75.3%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Chelsea corners (+1.5)	75.0%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Brentford corners (+2.5)	66.2%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Brentford corners (+1.5)	55.9%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Chelsea corners (-1.5)	44.1%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Chelsea corners (-2.5)	33.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Brentford corners (-1.5)	25.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Chelsea corners (-3.5)	24.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Brentford corners (-2.5)	17.2%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Brentford corners (-3.5)	11.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.6%	35.1%	—	—	2.85
12+ corners	33.8%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
9-11 corners	30.7%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	74.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	64.4%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 10.5 corners	56.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.8%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Under 9.5 corners	46.2%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 10.5 corners	43.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	35.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 11.5 corners	33.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 7.5 corners	25.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	8.9%	0.84×	13.46
Any other score	8.6%	7.4%	4.2%	1.77×	13.46
1-1	8.2%	7.4%	11.5%	0.64×	13.46
1-2	7.0%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.46
2-2	7.1%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.46
3-1	5.7%	7.4%	5.5%	1.36×	13.46
1-0	4.8%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.56
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.56
3-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.56
0-0	2.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.58
0-1	4.0%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.57
0-2	3.4%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.57
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.58
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.59
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	3.3%	0.53×	58.57
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.17×	58.58
2-3	4.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.57
2-4	1.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.49×	58.58
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.57
3-3	2.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	58.58
3-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.33×	58.59
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.58
4-1	3.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.58
4-2	2.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.58
4-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.81×	58.58
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	4.99×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford leading at HT (DNB)	63.4%	66.4%	59.6%	1.11×	1.51
Chelsea leading at HT (DNB)	36.6%	33.6%	40.4%	0.83×	2.98

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford or Chelsea (12)	78.9%	75.6%	75.4%	1.00×	1.32
Brentford or draw (1X)	67.5%	69.6%	67.7%	1.03×	1.44
Chelsea or draw (X2)	53.6%	52.5%	56.9%	0.92×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford or draw at HT	75.3%	79.9%	75.4%	1.06×	1.25
Brentford or Chelsea at HT	67.6%	66.1%	60.7%	1.09×	1.51
Chelsea or draw at HT	57.1%	56.8%	63.7%	0.89×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford or draw (1UP)	67.5%	75.9%	74.3%	1.02×	1.32
Chelsea or draw (1UP)	54.6%	58.9%	65.1%	0.91×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford or Chelsea in 2nd half	69.0%	65.6%	69.2%	0.95×	1.53
Brentford or draw in 2nd half	66.0%	65.5%	67.1%	0.98×	1.53
Chelsea or draw in 2nd half	65.0%	65.5%	63.6%	1.03×	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.4%	50.2%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Neither half drawn	46.6%	49.8%	43.4%	1.15×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford (DNB)	58.8%	58.2%	57.1%	1.02×	1.72
Chelsea (DNB)	41.2%	41.8%	42.9%	0.97×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford to score first	53.4%	54.2%	52.1%	1.04×	1.84
Chelsea to score first	44.3%	41.7%	43.2%	0.97×	2.40
No goal scored	2.3%	4.3%	4.8%	0.90×	23.21

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.3%	62.3%	58.2%	1.07×	1.61
Not both teams to score	28.7%	37.7%	41.8%	0.90×	2.65

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	63.2%	50.1%	46.7%	1.07×	2.00
Not both score & under 2.5	19.4%	21.8%	30.0%	0.73×	4.59
Not both score & over 2.5	9.3%	8.4%	11.9%	0.70×	11.96
Both score & under 2.5	8.2%	8.4%	11.5%	0.72×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	69.1%	71.0%	82.2%	0.86×	1.41
Both teams to score 2+	30.9%	29.0%	17.8%	1.63×	3.45

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.5%	66.0%	68.9%	0.96×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.5%	34.0%	31.1%	1.09×	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	40.2%	49.6%	55.9%	0.89×	2.02
Both score 2nd half only	26.2%	26.0%	24.6%	1.06×	3.85
Both score 1st half only	20.4%	21.0%	13.0%	1.62×	4.75
Both score in both halves	13.3%	10.5%	6.7%	1.57×	9.52

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	66.4%	69.2%	80.4%	0.86×	1.44
Both teams to score by HT	33.6%	30.8%	19.6%	1.57×	3.25

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	71.7%	72.4%	62.0%	1.17×	1.38
A half without a goal	28.3%	27.6%	38.0%	0.73×	3.62

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	43.1%	42.1%	32.7%	1.29×	2.37
2-3 goals	37.1%	35.0%	46.6%	0.75×	2.86
0-1 goals	11.1%	16.9%	18.1%	0.94×	5.92
7+ goals	8.7%	7.6%	2.8%	2.70×	13.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score exactly 1	31.0%	33.9%	35.6%	0.95×	2.95
Chelsea to score exactly 2	26.4%	27.4%	24.5%	1.12×	3.65
Chelsea to score 3+	24.4%	22.4%	15.1%	1.49×	4.47
Chelsea to score exactly 0	18.2%	19.5%	25.1%	0.78×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford to score 3+	33.8%	32.7%	22.9%	1.42×	3.06
Brentford to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Brentford to score exactly 1	26.3%	26.5%	29.7%	0.89×	3.77
Brentford to score exactly 0	12.8%	14.3%	21.6%	0.67×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford leading at HT	42.9%	43.2%	36.3%	1.19×	2.32
Draw at HT	32.4%	33.9%	39.3%	0.86×	2.95
Chelsea leading at HT	24.7%	20.1%	24.6%	0.82×	4.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford -1: 2	53.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Brentford -1: 1	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Brentford -1: X	19.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (0:1)	53.6%	51.2%	56.9%	0.90×	1.95
Brentford (0:1)	26.6%	27.0%	24.0%	1.12×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	19.8%	17.8%	19.2%	0.93×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (0:2)	73.4%	75.6%	76.0%	0.99×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	13.9%	11.0%	13.3%	0.83×	9.08
Brentford (0:2)	12.7%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.08

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (0:3)	87.3%	90.8%	89.2%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.6%	5.8%	7.5%	0.77×	17.23
Brentford (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	3.3%	1.74×	17.27

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (0:4)	94.9%	94.7%	96.7%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.4%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	83.08
Brentford (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	83.27

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford (1:0)	67.5%	69.8%	67.7%	1.03×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	16.4%	17.0%	16.6%	1.03×	5.87
Chelsea (1:0)	16.1%	17.0%	15.8%	1.08×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford (2:0)	83.9%	84.6%	84.2%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.5%	6.5%	9.3%	0.69×	15.46
Chelsea (2:0)	6.6%	6.5%	6.6%	0.98×	15.50

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.2%	46.4%	49.7%	0.93×	2.16
1st half highest scoring	35.4%	35.4%	25.7%	1.38×	2.82
Halves equal	21.3%	24.2%	24.6%	0.98×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford to concede	81.8%	80.8%	74.9%	1.08×	1.24
Brentford clean sheet	18.2%	19.2%	25.1%	0.77×	5.20

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford to concede in 1st half	51.5%	55.8%	40.6%	1.37×	1.79
Brentford clean sheet in 1st half	48.5%	44.2%	59.4%	0.75×	2.26

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford under 6.5 corners	79.3%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Brentford over 2.5 corners	78.7%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Brentford under 5.5 corners	67.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Brentford over 3.5 corners	62.9%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Brentford under 4.5 corners	53.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Brentford over 4.5 corners	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Brentford under 3.5 corners	37.1%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Brentford over 5.5 corners	32.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Brentford under 2.5 corners	21.3%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Brentford over 6.5 corners	20.7%	23.9%	—	—	4.19

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford over 0.5 goals	87.2%	87.2%	78.4%	1.11×	1.15
Brentford under 3.5 goals	84.7%	82.2%	91.6%	0.90×	1.22
Brentford under 2.5 goals	66.2%	67.9%	77.1%	0.88×	1.47
Brentford over 1.5 goals	60.9%	63.4%	48.8%	1.30×	1.58
Brentford under 1.5 goals	39.1%	36.6%	51.2%	0.72×	2.73
Brentford over 2.5 goals	33.8%	32.1%	22.9%	1.40×	3.12
Brentford over 3.5 goals	15.3%	17.8%	8.4%	2.13×	5.61
Brentford under 0.5 goals	12.8%	12.8%	21.6%	0.59×	7.83

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford under 1.5 in 1st half	71.5%	79.2%	84.4%	0.94×	1.26
Brentford over 0.5 in 1st half	65.3%	68.5%	51.4%	1.33×	1.46
Brentford under 0.5 in 1st half	34.7%	31.5%	48.6%	0.65×	3.18
Brentford over 1.5 in 1st half	28.5%	20.8%	15.6%	1.34×	4.81

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (home no bet)	60.6%	60.1%	56.8%	1.06×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	39.4%	39.9%	43.2%	0.92×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford even goals	50.8%	50.6%	53.6%	0.94×	1.98
Brentford odd goals	49.2%	49.4%	46.4%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	17.8%	18.9%	21.8%	0.87×	5.30
HT 0-0	16.8%	18.9%	27.5%	0.69×	5.30
HT 1-1	12.9%	11.1%	10.9%	1.02×	9.04
Any other HT score	12.5%	11.1%	5.3%	2.08×	9.05
HT 0-1	12.2%	11.1%	14.9%	0.74×	9.05
HT 2-0	9.4%	7.1%	8.1%	0.87×	14.07
HT 2-1	6.8%	7.1%	3.8%	1.88×	14.11
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.2%	2.8%	0.79×	44.57
HT 0-2	4.4%	2.2%	4.5%	0.49×	44.59
HT 2-2	2.5%	2.2%	1.0%	2.18×	44.74

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford at HT / Brentford at FT	32.5%	32.3%	26.3%	1.22×	3.10
Chelsea at HT / Chelsea at FT	17.8%	16.8%	16.9%	0.99×	5.95
Draw at HT / Brentford at FT	11.3%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.90
Draw at HT / Chelsea at FT	11.0%	12.7%	12.1%	1.05×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.1%	12.6%	13.4%	0.94×	7.91
Brentford at HT / Draw at FT	6.7%	6.0%	6.6%	0.91×	16.60
Chelsea at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.4%	4.8%	0.72×	29.11
Brentford at HT / Chelsea at FT	3.7%	3.4%	3.5%	0.98×	29.14
Chelsea at HT / Brentford at FT	2.5%	3.4%	3.0%	1.14×	29.18

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford to score last	53.4%	51.9%	50.3%	1.03×	1.93
Chelsea to score last	44.3%	40.2%	45.0%	0.89×	2.49
No goal scored	2.3%	4.3%	4.8%	0.90×	23.21

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.7%	95.6%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Brentford to lead by 1 at any time	65.8%	69.4%	62.2%	1.12×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	60.3%	61.4%	50.9%	1.21×	1.63
Chelsea to lead by 1 at any time	54.6%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Brentford to lead by 2 at any time	36.2%	34.7%	29.9%	1.16×	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.2%	25.2%	21.2%	1.19×	3.98
Chelsea to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.7%	21.3%	0.92×	5.09
Brentford to lead by 3 at any time	16.7%	14.9%	13.2%	1.13×	6.71
Chelsea to lead by 3 at any time	9.5%	6.6%	8.1%	0.81×	15.22

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea most corners	54.9%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Brentford most corners	34.5%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	10.6%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.5%	79.2%	1.05×	1.20
1-5 goals	79.8%	78.6%	88.5%	0.89×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.1%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	65.2%	69.0%	78.2%	0.88×	1.45
3-6 goals	63.8%	63.5%	55.8%	1.14×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.5%	59.2%	64.9%	0.91×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.6%	53.2%	51.8%	1.03×	1.88
1-3 goals	45.8%	48.7%	59.9%	0.81×	2.06
4-6 goals	43.1%	43.6%	32.7%	1.33×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	43.6%	41.5%	1.05×	2.29
2-3 goals	37.1%	39.2%	46.6%	0.84×	2.55
4-5 goals	34.0%	35.4%	28.7%	1.23×	2.83
1-2 goals	25.2%	30.2%	36.8%	0.82×	3.31
5-6 goals	23.7%	24.5%	14.4%	1.70×	4.09
7+ goals	8.7%	8.7%	2.8%	3.10×	11.43

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford never behind	43.1%	48.3%	48.7%	0.99×	2.07
Chelsea never behind	31.9%	35.4%	37.8%	0.94×	2.83

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.2%	51.0%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.4%	51.5%	53.3%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.6%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	52.0%	51.8%	1.00×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.0%	48.2%	0.99×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.7%	95.5%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.9%	87.7%	82.0%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	82.2%	82.4%	93.2%	0.88×	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	72.5%	72.5%	58.5%	1.24×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	67.6%	66.3%	82.9%	0.80×	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	51.8%	52.4%	35.4%	1.48×	1.91
Under 3.5 goals	48.2%	47.6%	64.6%	0.74×	2.10
Over 4.5 goals	32.4%	33.7%	17.1%	1.97×	2.96
Under 2.5 goals	27.5%	27.5%	41.5%	0.66×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	17.8%	17.6%	6.8%	2.61×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	11.1%	12.3%	18.1%	0.68×	8.12
Under 0.5 goals	2.3%	4.5%	4.8%	0.94×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	90.4%	92.5%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	86.7%	86.7%	76.4%	1.13×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	79.1%	76.0%	92.5%	0.82×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.3%	67.3%	46.1%	1.46×	1.49
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	59.8%	55.6%	79.1%	0.70×	1.80
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	40.2%	44.4%	20.9%	2.12×	2.25
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.7%	32.7%	53.9%	0.61×	3.06
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	20.9%	24.0%	7.5%	3.19×	4.16
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	13.3%	13.3%	23.6%	0.56×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	9.6%	7.6%	2.9%	2.57×	13.25

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	83.2%	86.5%	72.5%	1.19×	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	73.6%	71.1%	87.3%	0.81×	1.41
Over 1.5 in 1st half	53.2%	56.5%	35.9%	1.57×	1.77
Under 1.5 in 1st half	46.8%	43.5%	64.1%	0.68×	2.30
Over 2.5 in 1st half	26.4%	28.9%	12.7%	2.28×	3.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	16.8%	13.5%	27.5%	0.49×	7.39

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.2%	85.3%	84.8%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.2%	67.2%	75.9%	0.89×	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	58.8%	55.0%	54.2%	1.01×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.2%	45.0%	45.8%	0.98×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.8%	32.8%	24.1%	1.36×	3.05
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.8%	14.7%	15.2%	0.96×	6.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea not to score in both halves	67.8%	70.1%	76.7%	0.91×	1.43
Brentford not to score in both halves	58.8%	57.7%	68.7%	0.84×	1.73
Brentford to score in both halves	41.2%	42.3%	31.3%	1.35×	2.37
Chelsea to score in both halves	32.2%	29.9%	23.3%	1.29×	3.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	71.3%	66.2%	58.2%	1.14×	1.51
Only Brentford scores	15.9%	16.1%	20.4%	0.79×	6.21
Only Chelsea scores	10.5%	10.9%	16.9%	0.65×	9.15
Neither team scores	2.3%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.79

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.6%	22.6%	23.2%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	19.4%	17.5%	18.4%	0.95×	5.73
6 or more goals	17.8%	17.5%	6.8%	2.58×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	16.5%	17.4%	23.5%	0.74×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	14.6%	12.1%	10.4%	1.16×	8.29
Exactly 1 goals	8.8%	7.6%	13.3%	0.57×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	2.3%	4.4%	4.8%	0.92×	22.64

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	58.8%	53.4%	54.2%	0.99×	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.4%	29.6%	30.6%	0.97×	3.38
No goals in 2nd half	13.8%	14.5%	15.2%	0.95×	6.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea not to win both halves	91.6%	93.9%	91.2%	1.03×	1.07
Brentford not to win both halves	85.0%	88.0%	86.5%	1.02×	1.14
Brentford to win both halves	15.0%	12.0%	13.5%	0.89×	8.31
Chelsea to win both halves	8.4%	6.1%	8.8%	0.69×	16.50

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brentford to win either half	62.8%	65.4%	59.1%	1.11×	1.53
Chelsea to win either half	50.3%	54.7%	48.7%	1.12×	1.83
Chelsea to win neither half	49.7%	45.3%	51.3%	0.88×	2.21
Brentford to win neither half	37.2%	34.6%	40.9%	0.85×	2.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea not to win to nil	89.5%	88.2%	83.1%	1.06×	1.13
Brentford not to win to nil	84.1%	83.0%	79.6%	1.04×	1.21
Brentford to win to nil	15.9%	17.0%	20.4%	0.84×	5.88
Chelsea to win to nil	10.5%	11.8%	16.9%	0.70×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.1%	24.1%	24.6%	0.98×	4.14
Brentford by 1	19.8%	17.0%	19.2%	0.88×	5.90
Chelsea by 1	16.4%	16.9%	16.6%	1.02×	5.90
Brentford by 2	13.9%	11.8%	13.3%	0.89×	8.46
Brentford by 3+	12.7%	11.8%	10.8%	1.10×	8.46
Chelsea by 2	9.5%	7.2%	9.3%	0.78×	13.79
Chelsea by 3+	6.6%	7.2%	6.6%	1.10×	13.81