Brentford v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 18 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.45
Goals − xG
+0.34 – -0.89
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyBrentford win
51.0%
model 47.2%
Draw
22.2%
model 23.0%
Chelsea win
26.8%
model 29.8%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.3%
- 2-1 9.3%
- 1-0 7.5%
- 1-2 7.2%
- 2-0 6.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 61.6% | Under 2.5 | 38.4% |
| BTTS yes | 62.5% | BTTS no | 37.5% |
| Brentford 1+ | 83.4% | Brentford 2+ | 53.6% |
| Chelsea 1+ | 75.0% | Chelsea 2+ | 40.3% |
Expected goals 1.80 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
94/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Brentford (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 43%
52.1% fair odds 1.92
moderate signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 0.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 72%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Brentford carry the stronger rating, 1632 Elo against 1606.
- Brentford have created 1.76 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.82.
- At home Brentford average 2.36 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Chelsea have scored 2.20 a match from 1.44 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Brentford have an estimated 51.0% win probability, against 26.8% for Chelsea and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.80 for Brentford and 1.39 for Chelsea.
Why Brentford
Brentford carry the stronger rating, 1632 Elo against 1606. Brentford have created 1.76 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.82. At home Brentford average 2.36 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Chelsea can win
Chelsea have created 1.44 xG a match over their last five while Brentford have allowed 1.92. Away from home Chelsea average 0.97 xG a match.
Key players
Brentford's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Thiago (0.64), Kevin Schade (0.38), Dango Ouattara (0.33). Chelsea's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: João Pedro (0.56), Cole Palmer (0.48), Enzo Fernández (0.44).
Availability
1 of Brentford's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Brentford's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Chelsea's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Brentford: 45% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.48 xG a match from set pieces. Chelsea: 47% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Brentford's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-18 04:30 · team_stats 2026-09-18 06:04 · availability 2026-09-18 14:39 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Brentford are the model's most likely outcome at 51.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.3%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDDDWDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.3 xG
conceded 14
from 20.1 xG
Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWLWWLDLWW last 10
scored 21
from 14.5 xG
conceded 17
from 17.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.80–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-goals | 1.86–1.35 | 1-1 11% | 62% | 63% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.79–1.66 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.79–1.66 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✓ | |
| deep | 1.79–1.66 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to win | 41.6% | 43.0% | 42.8% | 1.00× | 2.33 |
| Chelsea to win | 36.0% | 36.3% | 32.4% | 1.12× | 2.75 |
| Draw | 22.4% | 24.4% | 24.9% | 0.98× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford & both teams score | 25.7% | 25.1% | 22.8% | 1.10× | 3.98 |
| Chelsea & both teams score | 22.5% | 21.8% | 15.6% | 1.40× | 4.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.2% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.57 |
| Brentford & not both score | 15.9% | 17.9% | 20.1% | 0.89× | 5.57 |
| Chelsea & not both score | 13.5% | 13.3% | 16.9% | 0.79× | 7.52 |
| Draw & not both score | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 0.98× | 20.47 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford & over 1.5 | 35.9% | 34.8% | 36.5% | 0.95× | 2.87 |
| Brentford & over 2.5 | 30.8% | 30.8% | 30.0% | 1.02× | 3.25 |
| Chelsea & over 1.5 | 30.7% | 30.8% | 25.6% | 1.20× | 3.25 |
| Chelsea & over 2.5 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 20.1% | 1.30× | 3.84 |
| Brentford & under 3.5 | 22.3% | 21.6% | 26.6% | 0.81× | 4.63 |
| Chelsea & under 3.5 | 19.8% | 18.0% | 21.7% | 0.83× | 5.56 |
| Brentford & over 3.5 | 19.3% | 18.0% | 16.3% | 1.10× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.2% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Chelsea & over 3.5 | 16.2% | 18.0% | 10.7% | 1.67× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 12.6% | 12.9% | 16.3% | 0.79× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 12.6% | 12.9% | 16.3% | 0.79× | 7.77 |
| Brentford & under 2.5 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 1.00× | 7.77 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 0.92× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 0.92× | 12.62 |
| Chelsea & under 2.5 | 9.6% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 0.64× | 12.62 |
| Brentford & under 1.5 | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 1.23× | 12.62 |
| Chelsea & under 1.5 | 5.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 1.14× | 12.63 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 0.96× | 20.83 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (1UP) | 61.0% | 63.0% | 61.9% | 1.02× | 1.59 |
| Chelsea (1UP) | 56.4% | 58.2% | 51.5% | 1.13× | 1.72 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (2UP) | 41.6% | 47.5% | 44.6% | 1.07× | 2.11 |
| Chelsea (2UP) | 36.0% | 37.0% | 34.6% | 1.07× | 2.70 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to win 2nd half | 35.0% | 34.3% | 36.1% | 0.95× | 2.92 |
| Chelsea to win 2nd half | 34.3% | 34.3% | 32.8% | 1.04× | 2.92 |
| 2nd half drawn | 30.7% | 34.2% | 31.1% | 1.10× | 2.92 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea under 1.5 in 2nd half | 73.5% | 75.5% | 79.8% | 0.95× | 1.32 |
| Chelsea over 0.5 in 2nd half | 63.2% | 59.9% | 57.6% | 1.04× | 1.67 |
| Chelsea under 0.5 in 2nd half | 36.8% | 40.1% | 42.4% | 0.95× | 2.49 |
| Chelsea over 1.5 in 2nd half | 26.5% | 24.5% | 20.2% | 1.21× | 4.08 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford under 1.5 in 2nd half | 73.1% | 73.6% | 75.5% | 0.97× | 1.36 |
| Brentford over 0.5 in 2nd half | 63.7% | 63.3% | 58.3% | 1.09× | 1.58 |
| Brentford under 0.5 in 2nd half | 36.3% | 36.7% | 41.7% | 0.88× | 2.73 |
| Brentford over 1.5 in 2nd half | 26.9% | 26.4% | 24.5% | 1.08× | 3.78 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea (+2.5) | 90.4% | 92.1% | 89.3% | 1.03× | 1.09 |
| Chelsea (+1.5) | 77.9% | 78.5% | 76.1% | 1.03× | 1.27 |
| Brentford (+0.5) | 64.0% | 62.9% | 67.6% | 0.93× | 1.59 |
| Chelsea (+0.5) | 58.4% | 57.0% | 57.2% | 1.00× | 1.75 |
| Brentford (-0.5) | 41.6% | 43.0% | 42.8% | 1.00× | 2.33 |
| Chelsea (-0.5) | 36.0% | 37.1% | 32.4% | 1.14× | 2.70 |
| Brentford (-1.5) | 22.1% | 21.5% | 23.9% | 0.90× | 4.65 |
| Brentford (-2.5) | 9.6% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 0.73× | 12.67 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to concede | 83.4% | 81.4% | 78.2% | 1.04× | 1.23 |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 16.6% | 18.6% | 21.8% | 0.85× | 5.39 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to concede in 1st half | 54.2% | 50.3% | 51.3% | 0.98× | 1.99 |
| Chelsea clean sheet in 1st half | 45.8% | 49.7% | 48.7% | 1.02× | 2.01 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to concede in 2nd half | 63.7% | 61.3% | 58.3% | 1.05× | 1.63 |
| Chelsea clean sheet in 2nd half | 36.3% | 38.7% | 41.7% | 0.93× | 2.58 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea over 2.5 corners | 86.9% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Chelsea over 3.5 corners | 75.6% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Chelsea under 6.5 corners | 63.8% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Chelsea over 4.5 corners | 62.2% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Chelsea under 5.5 corners | 51.4% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Chelsea over 5.5 corners | 48.6% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Chelsea under 4.5 corners | 37.8% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Chelsea over 6.5 corners | 36.2% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Chelsea under 3.5 corners | 24.4% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Chelsea under 2.5 corners | 13.1% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.77 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea under 3.5 goals | 91.3% | 92.3% | 94.5% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Chelsea over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | 81.4% | 75.0% | 1.09× | 1.23 |
| Chelsea under 2.5 goals | 76.8% | 76.3% | 84.9% | 0.90× | 1.31 |
| Chelsea under 1.5 goals | 50.6% | 53.5% | 60.4% | 0.89× | 1.87 |
| Chelsea over 1.5 goals | 49.4% | 46.5% | 39.6% | 1.17× | 2.15 |
| Chelsea over 2.5 goals | 23.2% | 23.7% | 15.1% | 1.58× | 4.22 |
| Chelsea under 0.5 goals | 19.0% | 18.6% | 25.0% | 0.74× | 5.37 |
| Chelsea over 3.5 goals | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.40× | 12.98 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea under 1.5 in 1st half | 85.9% | 88.8% | 89.1% | 1.00× | 1.13 |
| Chelsea under 0.5 in 1st half | 51.8% | 55.3% | 59.3% | 0.93× | 1.81 |
| Chelsea over 0.5 in 1st half | 48.2% | 44.7% | 40.7% | 1.10× | 2.24 |
| Chelsea over 1.5 in 1st half | 14.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 1.03× | 8.91 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea scores more in 2nd half | 42.7% | 44.1% | 40.5% | 1.09× | 2.27 |
| Chelsea scores equally in both | 33.8% | 34.0% | 37.6% | 0.90× | 2.95 |
| Chelsea scores more in 1st half | 23.5% | 22.2% | 21.9% | 1.01× | 4.50 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (away no bet) | 65.0% | 62.0% | 63.3% | 0.98× | 1.61 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 35.0% | 38.0% | 36.8% | 1.03× | 2.63 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea even goals | 51.8% | 52.6% | 53.7% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Chelsea odd goals | 48.2% | 47.4% | 46.3% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 74.8% | 77.0% | 80.0% | 0.96× | 1.30 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 25.2% | 23.0% | 20.0% | 1.15× | 4.35 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 76.7% | 72.6% | 70.2% | 1.03× | 1.38 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 27.4% | 29.8% | 0.92× | 3.65 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 67.6% | 62.1% | 61.4% | 1.01× | 1.61 |
| Brentford to score 2+ in a row | 41.9% | 38.1% | 38.9% | 0.98× | 2.62 |
| Chelsea to score 2+ in a row | 37.4% | 36.5% | 29.9% | 1.22× | 2.74 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 27.8% | 25.2% | 26.1% | 0.97× | 3.96 |
| Brentford to score 3+ in a row | 15.7% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 1.00× | 6.12 |
| Chelsea to score 3+ in a row | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 1.20× | 8.19 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea corners (+3.5) | 90.3% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Chelsea corners (+2.5) | 85.0% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Chelsea corners (+1.5) | 78.0% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Brentford corners (+3.5) | 71.0% | 70.8% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Brentford corners (+2.5) | 61.7% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Brentford corners (+1.5) | 51.4% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Chelsea corners (-1.5) | 48.6% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Chelsea corners (-2.5) | 38.3% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Chelsea corners (-3.5) | 29.0% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Brentford corners (-1.5) | 22.0% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.96 |
| Brentford corners (-2.5) | 15.0% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.44 |
| Brentford corners (-3.5) | 9.7% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.57 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 37.4% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 12+ corners | 33.2% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.5% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 74.8% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 72.6% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 66.8% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 62.6% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 57.7% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52.3% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 47.7% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 42.3% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 37.4% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 33.2% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 27.4% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 25.2% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.4% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 0.65× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 0.83× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 0.96× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.50 |
| 1-0 | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.15× | 13.50 |
| 2-0 | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 1.14× | 13.50 |
| 3-1 | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 1.37× | 13.50 |
| Any other score | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.75× | 13.50 |
| 0-0 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.34× | 58.34 |
| 0-2 | 4.4% | 1.7% | 5.6% | 0.31× | 58.33 |
| 0-3 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.68× | 58.34 |
| 0-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.56× | 58.35 |
| 1-3 | 4.3% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.53× | 58.33 |
| 1-4 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.19× | 58.34 |
| 2-3 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.70× | 58.33 |
| 2-4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.53× | 58.34 |
| 3-0 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.34× | 58.34 |
| 3-2 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.56× | 58.33 |
| 3-3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.25× | 58.34 |
| 3-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.37× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.27× | 58.35 |
| 4-1 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.75× | 58.34 |
| 4-2 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.27× | 58.34 |
| 4-3 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.84× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.07× | 58.35 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (2nd half DNB) | 50.5% | 54.0% | 52.4% | 1.03× | 1.85 |
| Chelsea (2nd half DNB) | 49.5% | 46.0% | 47.6% | 0.97× | 2.17 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford leading at HT (DNB) | 55.8% | 58.2% | 59.4% | 0.98× | 1.72 |
| Chelsea leading at HT (DNB) | 44.2% | 41.8% | 40.6% | 1.03× | 2.39 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford or Chelsea (12) | 77.6% | 75.6% | 75.1% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Brentford or draw (1X) | 64.0% | 63.7% | 67.6% | 0.94× | 1.57 |
| Chelsea or draw (X2) | 58.4% | 57.0% | 57.2% | 1.00× | 1.75 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford or draw at HT | 72.4% | 74.7% | 75.4% | 0.99× | 1.34 |
| Chelsea or draw at HT | 65.1% | 66.2% | 64.0% | 1.03× | 1.51 |
| Brentford or Chelsea at HT | 62.4% | 62.1% | 60.5% | 1.03× | 1.61 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford or draw (1UP) | 64.0% | 72.1% | 74.3% | 0.97× | 1.39 |
| Chelsea or draw (1UP) | 58.4% | 62.7% | 65.4% | 0.96× | 1.60 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford or Chelsea in 2nd half | 69.3% | 65.8% | 68.9% | 0.96× | 1.52 |
| Brentford or draw in 2nd half | 65.7% | 65.7% | 67.2% | 0.98× | 1.52 |
| Chelsea or draw in 2nd half | 65.0% | 65.7% | 63.9% | 1.03× | 1.52 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 56.8% | 58.1% | 56.9% | 1.02× | 1.72 |
| Neither half drawn | 43.2% | 41.9% | 43.1% | 0.97× | 2.39 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (DNB) | 53.6% | 51.0% | 56.9% | 0.90× | 1.96 |
| Chelsea (DNB) | 46.4% | 49.0% | 43.1% | 1.14× | 2.04 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to score first | 50.3% | 53.6% | 51.8% | 1.03× | 1.87 |
| Chelsea to score first | 46.5% | 45.6% | 43.3% | 1.05× | 2.19 |
| No goal scored | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 0.87× | 23.01 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | 58.5% | 58.1% | 1.01× | 1.71 |
| Not both teams to score | 32.5% | 41.5% | 41.9% | 0.99× | 2.41 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 58.1% | 47.4% | 46.8% | 1.01× | 2.11 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 23.6% | 27.8% | 30.1% | 0.92× | 3.60 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 9.4% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 0.73× | 12.03 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.0% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 0.70× | 12.03 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 73.6% | 80.6% | 82.1% | 0.98× | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 26.4% | 19.4% | 17.9% | 1.08× | 5.15 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 59.7% | 66.1% | 68.8% | 0.96× | 1.51 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 40.3% | 33.9% | 31.2% | 1.09× | 2.95 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 44.1% | 49.6% | 55.8% | 0.89× | 2.01 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 29.8% | 26.7% | 24.5% | 1.09× | 3.75 |
| Both score 1st half only | 15.6% | 15.5% | 13.0% | 1.19× | 6.46 |
| Both score in both halves | 10.5% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 1.56× | 9.46 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 73.9% | 80.1% | 80.3% | 1.00× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 26.1% | 19.9% | 19.7% | 1.01× | 5.03 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 66.1% | 66.6% | 61.9% | 1.08× | 1.50 |
| A half without a goal | 33.9% | 33.4% | 38.1% | 0.88× | 3.00 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 40.6% | 42.0% | 46.4% | 0.91× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 39.2% | 35.2% | 32.8% | 1.07× | 2.84 |
| 0-1 goals | 14.1% | 16.9% | 18.2% | 0.93× | 5.93 |
| 7+ goals | 6.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 2.73× | 13.11 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to score exactly 1 | 31.6% | 33.8% | 35.4% | 0.95× | 2.96 |
| Chelsea to score exactly 2 | 26.2% | 27.4% | 24.6% | 1.11× | 3.65 |
| Chelsea to score 3+ | 23.2% | 22.3% | 15.1% | 1.48× | 4.48 |
| Chelsea to score exactly 0 | 19.0% | 19.6% | 25.0% | 0.78× | 5.11 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to score exactly 1 | 29.8% | 26.5% | 29.4% | 0.90× | 3.77 |
| Brentford to score exactly 2 | 26.8% | 26.5% | 26.1% | 1.01× | 3.77 |
| Brentford to score 3+ | 26.8% | 26.5% | 22.8% | 1.17× | 3.77 |
| Brentford to score exactly 0 | 16.6% | 18.8% | 21.8% | 0.86× | 5.32 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 37.6% | 37.9% | 39.5% | 0.96× | 2.64 |
| Brentford leading at HT | 34.9% | 33.8% | 36.0% | 0.94× | 2.96 |
| Chelsea leading at HT | 27.6% | 25.3% | 24.6% | 1.03× | 3.95 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford -1: 2 | 58.4% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Brentford -1: 1 | 22.1% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
| Brentford -1: X | 19.5% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.72 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea (0:1) | 58.4% | 55.8% | 57.2% | 0.98× | 1.79 |
| Brentford (0:1) | 22.1% | 24.2% | 23.9% | 1.01× | 4.14 |
| Draw (0:1) | 19.5% | 17.8% | 19.0% | 0.94× | 5.61 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea (0:2) | 77.9% | 79.4% | 76.1% | 1.04× | 1.26 |
| Draw (0:2) | 12.5% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 0.83× | 9.11 |
| Brentford (0:2) | 9.6% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 0.72× | 13.01 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea (0:3) | 90.4% | 92.7% | 89.3% | 1.04× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 0.77× | 17.31 |
| Brentford (0:3) | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.72× | 42.20 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea (0:4) | 96.5% | 98.1% | 96.7% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.60× | 82.64 |
| Brentford (0:4) | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.89× | 82.80 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (1:0) | 64.0% | 65.3% | 67.6% | 0.97× | 1.53 |
| Draw (1:0) | 18.1% | 17.1% | 16.7% | 1.02× | 5.86 |
| Chelsea (1:0) | 17.9% | 17.1% | 15.8% | 1.08× | 5.86 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (2:0) | 82.1% | 84.6% | 84.2% | 1.01× | 1.18 |
| Draw (2:0) | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 1.11× | 9.69 |
| Chelsea (2:0) | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 0.97× | 15.62 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 51.0% | 50.4% | 49.6% | 1.02× | 1.98 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.4% | 26.4% | 25.8% | 1.02× | 3.79 |
| Halves equal | 21.6% | 24.3% | 24.7% | 0.98× | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to concede | 81.0% | 80.7% | 75.0% | 1.08× | 1.24 |
| Brentford clean sheet | 19.0% | 19.3% | 25.0% | 0.77× | 5.19 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford clean sheet in 1st half | 51.8% | 55.3% | 59.3% | 0.93× | 1.81 |
| Brentford to concede in 1st half | 48.2% | 44.7% | 40.7% | 1.10× | 2.24 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to concede in 2nd half | 63.2% | 59.7% | 57.6% | 1.04× | 1.68 |
| Brentford clean sheet in 2nd half | 36.8% | 40.3% | 42.4% | 0.95× | 2.48 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford under 6.5 corners | 82.0% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Brentford over 2.5 corners | 74.5% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Brentford under 5.5 corners | 71.8% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Brentford under 4.5 corners | 58.2% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Brentford over 3.5 corners | 57.9% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Brentford under 3.5 corners | 42.1% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Brentford over 4.5 corners | 41.8% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Brentford over 5.5 corners | 28.3% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Brentford under 2.5 corners | 25.5% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Brentford over 6.5 corners | 18.0% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford under 3.5 goals | 89.2% | 87.3% | 91.6% | 0.95× | 1.15 |
| Brentford over 0.5 goals | 83.4% | 82.2% | 78.2% | 1.05× | 1.22 |
| Brentford under 2.5 goals | 73.2% | 74.3% | 77.2% | 0.96× | 1.35 |
| Brentford over 1.5 goals | 53.5% | 53.2% | 48.8% | 1.09× | 1.88 |
| Brentford under 1.5 goals | 46.5% | 46.8% | 51.2% | 0.91× | 2.14 |
| Brentford over 2.5 goals | 26.8% | 25.7% | 22.8% | 1.13× | 3.89 |
| Brentford under 0.5 goals | 16.6% | 17.8% | 21.8% | 0.82× | 5.62 |
| Brentford over 3.5 goals | 10.8% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 1.52× | 7.86 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford under 1.5 in 1st half | 81.6% | 84.3% | 84.5% | 1.00× | 1.19 |
| Brentford over 0.5 in 1st half | 54.2% | 50.2% | 51.3% | 0.98× | 1.99 |
| Brentford under 0.5 in 1st half | 45.8% | 49.8% | 48.7% | 1.02× | 2.01 |
| Brentford over 1.5 in 1st half | 18.4% | 15.7% | 15.5% | 1.01× | 6.37 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford scores more in 2nd half | 40.1% | 42.3% | 36.0% | 1.17× | 2.37 |
| Brentford scores equally in both | 32.6% | 33.0% | 37.8% | 0.87× | 3.03 |
| Brentford scores more in 1st half | 27.3% | 27.9% | 26.2% | 1.06× | 3.59 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea (home no bet) | 61.6% | 60.0% | 56.6% | 1.06× | 1.67 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 38.4% | 40.0% | 43.4% | 0.92× | 2.50 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford even goals | 51.4% | 50.7% | 54.1% | 0.94× | 1.97 |
| Brentford odd goals | 48.6% | 49.3% | 45.9% | 1.07× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 23.8% | 24.1% | 27.8% | 0.87× | 4.15 |
| HT 1-0 | 18.5% | 18.8% | 21.6% | 0.87× | 5.31 |
| HT 0-1 | 15.6% | 18.8% | 14.9% | 1.26× | 5.33 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 0.99× | 9.28 |
| HT 2-0 | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 0.88× | 14.08 |
| Any other HT score | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.33× | 14.08 |
| HT 0-2 | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.58× | 14.11 |
| HT 2-1 | 4.8% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 0.63× | 42.59 |
| HT 1-2 | 4.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 0.79× | 42.64 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 2.30× | 42.81 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford at HT / Brentford at FT | 25.5% | 26.6% | 26.1% | 1.02× | 3.77 |
| Chelsea at HT / Chelsea at FT | 19.7% | 16.8% | 17.0% | 0.99× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Brentford at FT | 13.2% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.91× | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Chelsea at FT | 12.9% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 1.05× | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 11.5% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 0.92× | 7.90 |
| Brentford at HT / Draw at FT | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 0.93× | 16.42 |
| Chelsea at HT / Draw at FT | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 0.71× | 29.01 |
| Brentford at HT / Chelsea at FT | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.99× | 29.07 |
| Chelsea at HT / Brentford at FT | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.16× | 29.09 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to score last | 50.3% | 51.8% | 50.0% | 1.04× | 1.93 |
| Chelsea to score last | 46.5% | 46.5% | 45.1% | 1.03× | 2.15 |
| No goal scored | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 0.87× | 23.01 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 96.8% | 95.6% | 95.0% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Brentford to lead by 1 at any time | 61.0% | 61.2% | 61.9% | 0.99× | 1.64 |
| Chelsea to lead by 1 at any time | 56.4% | 55.0% | 51.5% | 1.07× | 1.82 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 56.2% | 55.0% | 50.6% | 1.09× | 1.82 |
| Brentford to lead by 2 at any time | 30.6% | 29.5% | 29.7% | 0.99× | 3.39 |
| Chelsea to lead by 2 at any time | 26.1% | 25.4% | 21.2% | 1.20× | 3.94 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 22.8% | 19.6% | 21.2% | 0.93× | 5.10 |
| Brentford to lead by 3 at any time | 12.7% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 0.80× | 9.54 |
| Chelsea to lead by 3 at any time | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 1.28× | 9.59 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea most corners | 59.2% | 55.6% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Brentford most corners | 30.8% | 34.4% | — | — | 2.91 |
| Corners level | 10.0% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 83.2% | 83.4% | 88.4% | 0.94× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 79.7% | 78.7% | 79.1% | 0.99× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.3% | 72.4% | 75.2% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| 1-4 goals | 70.3% | 72.4% | 77.9% | 0.93× | 1.38 |
| 3-6 goals | 60.9% | 63.4% | 55.8% | 1.13× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 59.3% | 59.1% | 64.7% | 0.91× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 53.4% | 53.1% | 51.9% | 1.02× | 1.88 |
| 1-3 goals | 51.5% | 53.1% | 59.6% | 0.89× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 40.6% | 43.5% | 46.4% | 0.94× | 2.30 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.5% | 43.5% | 41.5% | 1.05× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 39.2% | 39.2% | 32.8% | 1.20× | 2.55 |
| 4-5 goals | 31.7% | 35.2% | 28.9% | 1.22× | 2.84 |
| 1-2 goals | 29.8% | 30.3% | 36.5% | 0.83× | 3.30 |
| 5-6 goals | 20.4% | 24.5% | 14.5% | 1.69× | 4.08 |
| 7+ goals | 6.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.18× | 11.26 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford never behind | 40.4% | 48.5% | 48.5% | 1.00× | 2.06 |
| Chelsea never behind | 35.8% | 44.1% | 38.1% | 1.16× | 2.27 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 50.0% | 50.9% | 49.0% | 1.04× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 51.0% | 0.96× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 52.8% | 51.9% | 53.4% | 0.97× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 47.2% | 48.1% | 46.6% | 1.03× | 2.08 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.9% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 1.00× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.1% | 48.0% | 48.0% | 1.00× | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96.8% | 95.4% | 95.0% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 86.4% | 87.6% | 93.3% | 0.94× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | 87.6% | 81.8% | 1.07× | 1.14 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 73.4% | 72.4% | 82.8% | 0.87× | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | 66.3% | 58.5% | 1.13× | 1.51 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54.7% | 52.5% | 64.5% | 0.81× | 1.90 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.3% | 47.5% | 35.5% | 1.34× | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | 33.7% | 41.5% | 0.81× | 2.97 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 26.6% | 27.6% | 17.2% | 1.61× | 3.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.1% | 12.4% | 18.2% | 0.68× | 8.07 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 13.6% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 1.85× | 8.07 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.92× | 21.88 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 93.4% | 92.4% | 97.1% | 0.95× | 1.08 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 84.4% | 81.1% | 92.5% | 0.88× | 1.23 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 82.6% | 81.1% | 76.3% | 1.06× | 1.23 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 67.3% | 67.5% | 79.0% | 0.85× | 1.48 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 57.9% | 55.8% | 46.2% | 1.21× | 1.79 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 42.1% | 44.2% | 53.8% | 0.82× | 2.26 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 32.7% | 32.5% | 21.0% | 1.55× | 3.07 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 17.4% | 18.9% | 23.7% | 0.80× | 5.29 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 15.6% | 18.9% | 7.5% | 2.53× | 5.29 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 6.6% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 2.62× | 13.15 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 82.4% | 86.0% | 87.2% | 0.99× | 1.16 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 76.2% | 79.0% | 72.3% | 1.09× | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 57.9% | 63.3% | 64.0% | 0.99× | 1.58 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 42.1% | 36.7% | 36.0% | 1.02× | 2.73 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 23.8% | 21.0% | 27.8% | 0.76× | 4.76 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 17.6% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 1.09× | 7.17 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 86.7% | 85.3% | 84.7% | 1.01× | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 67.3% | 67.2% | 76.0% | 0.88× | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 59.8% | 54.6% | 54.2% | 1.01× | 1.83 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 40.2% | 45.4% | 45.8% | 0.99× | 2.20 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 32.7% | 32.8% | 24.0% | 1.37× | 3.05 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 13.3% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 0.96× | 6.79 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea not to score in both halves | 69.5% | 70.0% | 76.7% | 0.91× | 1.43 |
| Brentford not to score in both halves | 65.5% | 69.7% | 68.6% | 1.02× | 1.43 |
| Brentford to score in both halves | 34.5% | 30.3% | 31.4% | 0.96× | 3.30 |
| Chelsea to score in both halves | 30.5% | 30.0% | 23.4% | 1.29× | 3.33 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 67.5% | 60.0% | 58.1% | 1.03× | 1.67 |
| Only Brentford scores | 15.9% | 16.0% | 20.1% | 0.79× | 6.25 |
| Only Chelsea scores | 13.5% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 0.65× | 9.07 |
| Neither team scores | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.93× | 21.56 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.7% | 22.6% | 23.1% | 0.98× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 18.9% | 17.5% | 23.4% | 0.75× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 18.8% | 17.5% | 18.4% | 0.95× | 5.73 |
| 6 or more goals | 13.6% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 1.81× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 12.9% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 1.15× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 10.9% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 0.91× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.90× | 22.36 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 34.1% | 36.1% | 36.4% | 0.99× | 2.77 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 24.5% | 21.7% | 23.3% | 0.93× | 4.61 |
| No goals in 1st half | 23.8% | 21.7% | 27.8% | 0.78× | 4.62 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 17.6% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 1.20× | 6.54 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 59.8% | 53.0% | 54.2% | 0.98× | 1.89 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 26.9% | 29.9% | 30.5% | 0.98× | 3.35 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 13.3% | 14.6% | 15.3% | 0.96× | 6.83 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea not to win both halves | 90.6% | 94.0% | 91.2% | 1.03× | 1.06 |
| Brentford not to win both halves | 87.8% | 88.0% | 86.6% | 1.02× | 1.14 |
| Brentford to win both halves | 12.2% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 0.90× | 8.35 |
| Chelsea to win both halves | 9.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 0.69× | 16.53 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to win either half | 57.7% | 59.5% | 58.7% | 1.01× | 1.68 |
| Chelsea to win either half | 52.4% | 54.6% | 48.6% | 1.12× | 1.83 |
| Chelsea to win neither half | 47.6% | 45.4% | 51.4% | 0.88× | 2.20 |
| Brentford to win neither half | 42.3% | 40.5% | 41.3% | 0.98× | 2.47 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea not to win to nil | 86.5% | 88.1% | 83.1% | 1.06× | 1.14 |
| Brentford not to win to nil | 84.1% | 83.1% | 79.9% | 1.04× | 1.20 |
| Brentford to win to nil | 15.9% | 16.9% | 20.1% | 0.84× | 5.92 |
| Chelsea to win to nil | 13.5% | 11.9% | 16.9% | 0.70× | 8.42 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 22.4% | 24.1% | 24.9% | 0.97× | 4.15 |
| Brentford by 1 | 19.5% | 17.0% | 19.0% | 0.89× | 5.88 |
| Chelsea by 1 | 18.1% | 17.0% | 16.7% | 1.02× | 5.88 |
| Brentford by 2 | 12.5% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 0.89× | 8.49 |
| Chelsea by 2 | 10.6% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.27× | 8.49 |
| Brentford by 3+ | 9.6% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 0.67× | 13.87 |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 1.09× | 13.88 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 2.66 xGChelsea 0.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Brentford |
Thiago | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 9' |
 Chelsea |
Morgan Rogers | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 22' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Chelsea |
Morgan Rogers | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Brentford |
Yehor Yarmolyuk | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thiago |
| 38' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 40' |
Chelsea |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 42' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 42' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Chelsea |
Morgan Rogers | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 58' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Chelsea |
Pep Chavarría | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emiliano Martinez |
| 60' |
Brentford |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.83 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jannik Schuster |
| 63' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 65' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 67' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 75' |
Chelsea |
Valentín Barco | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Chelsea |
Geovany Quenda | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 82' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 82' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Chelsea |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.29 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 93' |
Brentford |
Fabio Carvalho | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.02 | 0.66 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jannik Schuster DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.10 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.49 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| Jaidon Anthony AMR | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aaron Hickey Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Sangaré Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| Pep Chavarría DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jordan Henderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Pedro Neto DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Valentín Barco MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Geovany Quenda Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Acheampong Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mahdi Nicoll-Jazuli Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Estêvão Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |