Brentford v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.56 – -0.15
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
47.6%
Draw
24.5%
Crystal Palace win
27.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.19 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 1.44 xGCrystal Palace 1.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 20' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Crystal Palace |
Joachim Andersen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 28' |
 Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yoane Wissa |
| 30' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 41' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Nørgaard |
| 46' |
Brentford |
Ethan Pinnock | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 49' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 51' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 52' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Will Hughes |
| 56' |
Brentford |
Ethan Pinnock | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 68' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 72' |
Crystal Palace |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Ayew |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.70 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Odsonne Edouard |
| 81' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 82' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Crystal Palace |
Jordan Ayew | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jefferson Lerma |
| 88' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.81 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Will Hughes MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Chris Richards DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Daichi Kamada AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Odsonne Edouard Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Jordan Ayew Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Ismaila Sarr Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Cheick Oumar Doucoure Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Ajer DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Bryan Mbeumo FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Christian Nørgaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Mads Roerslev DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 87 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.07 | 0.83 |
| Mathias Jensen MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Kevin Schade FWL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frank Onyeka Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Mee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |