Brentford v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 14
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.31 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.28 – +0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
45.3%
Draw
31.3%
Everton win
23.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWDDDWDLD last 10
scored 17
from 17.4 xG
conceded 12
from 17.6 xG
Everton are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWDDDWDLL last 10
scored 9
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.18 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 2.28 xGEverton 1.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Brentford |
Thiago | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 8' |
 Everton |
Beto | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 18' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 21' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Goal | Idrissa Gueye |
| 33' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thiago |
| 37' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.16 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Mathias Jensen |
| 37' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.15 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Mathias Jensen |
| 49' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 52' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 54' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 63' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Reiss Nelson |
| 64' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 68' |
Brentford |
Reiss Nelson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 69' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Beto |
| 69' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 72' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 72' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Michael Kayode | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sepp van den Berg |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Kayode |
| 80' |
Everton |
Tyrique George | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 87' |
Everton |
Tyrique George | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 90' |
Everton |
Jake O'Brien | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 90' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.13 | 0.70 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Beto FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| Dwight McNeil AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Thierno Barry Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.01 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.01 | 0.57 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Mathias Jensen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Reiss Nelson Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.15 |