Brentford v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-2.34 – -0.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
44.9%
Draw
28.0%
Fulham win
27.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.61–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.94–1.19 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 2.34 xGFulham 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Brentford |
Thiago | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 9' |
 Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 13' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 17' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 28' |
Fulham |
Joachim Andersen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 31' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Cairney |
| 34' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 39' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 42' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 49' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 57' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 63' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Cairney |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 77' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sasa Lukic |
| 84' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 88' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 89' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 90' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 91' |
Fulham |
Calvin Bassey | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 93' |
Fulham |
Oscar Bobb | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Ryan Sessegnon DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
| Tom Cairney DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.65 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Rodrigo Muniz FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Chukwueze Sub | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alex Iwobi AML | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Joshua King Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raúl Jiménez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oscar Bobb Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonee Robinson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 1.14 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.10 | 0.64 |
| Thiago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 0.93 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Mathias Jensen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.39 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |