Brentford v Ipswich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 12
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
1.33 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.10 – +1.34
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
72.7%
Draw
15.9%
Ipswich win
11.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.56–0.92 | 2-0 10% | 67% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 4.10 xGIpswich 1.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Ipswich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | George Hirst |
| 6' |
 Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 6' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 24' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 27' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | George Hirst |
| 30' |
Ipswich |
George Hirst | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Conor Chaplin |
| 37' |
Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Conor Chaplin |
| 38' |
Ipswich |
Leif Davis | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cameron Burgess |
| 38' |
Ipswich |
Sammie Szmodics | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Ipswich |
Leif Davis | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vitaly Janelt |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 45' |
Ipswich |
Harry Clarke | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 47' |
Ipswich |
Leif Davis | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 52' |
Ipswich |
Wes Burns | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leif Davis |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ethan Pinnock |
| 59' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ethan Pinnock |
| 60' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mads Roerslev |
| 63' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 64' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.65 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 68' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mads Roerslev |
| 71' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 83' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mads Roerslev |
| 84' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 85' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Leif Davis |
| 89' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mads Roerslev |
| 92' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.47 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ethan Pinnock |
| 95' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mads Roerslev |
| 97' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Conor Townsend |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 1.30 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.14 | 0.94 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 1.30 |
| Sepp van den Berg DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1.45 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Mads Roerslev DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 1.68 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1.57 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter AML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.65 | 1.15 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 1.45 |
| Kevin Schade Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.45 |
| Jens Cajuste DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kalvin Phillips DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Sammie Szmodics AML | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| George Hirst FW | 81 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.65 |
| Conor Chaplin AMC | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Harry Clarke DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wes Burns Sub | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Chiedozie Ogbene AMR | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luke Woolfenden Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Conor Townsend Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |