Brentford v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
8 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.28 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
1.36 – 0.83
Goals − xG
+0.21 – -2.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
50.4%
Draw
23.9%
Manchester United win
25.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.72–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.89–1.54 | 1-1 9% | 66% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 2.79 xGManchester United 3.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 7' |
 Brentford |
Thiago | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jordan Henderson |
| 12' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 16' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 16' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 19' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.69 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 31' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Sesko |
| 37' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 51' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 60' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.60 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aaron Hickey |
| 62' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 75' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 77' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Caoimhin Kelleher |
| 79' |
Brentford |
Yehor Yarmolyuk | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Manchester United |
Matthijs de Ligt | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 97' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Thiago FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Henderson DMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.33 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| Aaron Hickey DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Rico Henry Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitaly Janelt Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Frank Onyeka Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2.17 | 0.06 | 2.19 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Altay Bayindir GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Diogo Dalot DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kobbie Mainoo Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |