Brentford v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 5
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 2
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.56 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.26 – +0.57
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
36.7%
Draw
26.5%
Newcastle United win
36.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.39–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.71 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 2.74 xGNewcastle United 0.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 6' |
 Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 16' |
Brentford |
Aaron Hickey | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
Brentford |
Aaron Hickey | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Brentford |
Jordan Henderson | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 46' |
Brentford |
Yehor Yarmolyuk | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 49' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 57' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 57' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 64' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 66' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 77' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 87' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 93' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 97' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 97' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.61 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathan Collins |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Nick Pope GK | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Dan Burn DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| Joelinton MC | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Hall Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Ramsdale Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.03 | 0.53 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.61 | 0.04 |
| Jordan Henderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| Aaron Hickey DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rico Henry Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Reiss Nelson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitaly Janelt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |