Brentford v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 16
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+2.25 – +0.04
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
37.2%
Draw
22.4%
Newcastle United win
40.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.77 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 68% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 1.75 xGNewcastle United 1.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Newcastle United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Alexander Isak |
| 7' |
 Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christian Nørgaard |
| 8' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 9' |
Newcastle United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 10' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 12' |
Brentford |
Fabio Carvalho | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 22' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago |
| 23' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 36' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.53 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 43' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joelinton |
| 52' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.32 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Mark Flekken |
| 58' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 69' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 71' |
Brentford |
Yehor Yarmolyuk | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Nørgaard |
| 83' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Miguel Almirón | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 92' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentino Livramento |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 0.88 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.89 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.70 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.53 | 0.86 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.58 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 63 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.44 | 1.04 |
| Joelinton MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.58 |
| Sandro Tonali Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Anthony Gordon Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Almirón Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kieran Trippier Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo DMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Yoane Wissa AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.09 |
| Christian Nørgaard MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.90 |
| Fabio Carvalho AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Thiago FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Kevin Schade Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Paris Maghoma Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Mee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |