Brentford v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 10
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.77 – +1.04
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
42.8%
Draw
24.8%
Nottingham Forest win
32.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–1.31 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 0.77 xGNottingham Forest 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 4' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 17' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 20' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 32' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 37' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Neco Williams |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 50' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 57' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 61' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 69' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 72' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.74 |
| Ola Aina DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Neco Williams DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.42 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.60 |
| Anthony Elanga AMC | 65 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Toffolo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Christian Nørgaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Mbeumo FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Mee DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Schade FWL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mads Roerslev Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paris Maghoma Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Konak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |