Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 1 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 9
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.56 – -0.61
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
53.9%
Draw
22.2%
Tottenham Hotspur win
23.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.95–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.49 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 0.56 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Archie Gray | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 4' |
 Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 18' |
Brentford |
Rico Henry | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Archie Gray | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
| 31' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Brentford |
Yehor Yarmolyuk | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
| 49' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 51' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Palhinha |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 61' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 68' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 73' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keane Lewis-Potter FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Thiago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Rico Henry DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jordan Henderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| Kevin Schade FWL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reiss Nelson Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| Mohammed Kudus FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Archie Gray MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.27 |
| Djed Spence DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| João Palhinha MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| Wilson Odobert FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Randal Kolo Muani Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Mathys Tel Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |