Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 13
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-1.67 – +1.05
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
43.5%
Draw
20.7%
Tottenham Hotspur win
35.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.08–1.88 | 2-1 8% | 76% | 74% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 1.67 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djed Spence |
| 11' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 18' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 19' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikey Moore |
| 19' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djed Spence |
| 22' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Djed Spence | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Bentancur |
| 24' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yves Bissouma |
| 26' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 27' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikey Moore |
| 27' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 32' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 32' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 36' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 36' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
| 39' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 40' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Bentancur |
| 46' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Kevin Schade |
| 54' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Bentancur |
| 59' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Lucas Bergvall | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 61' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 74' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 79' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Brentford |
Fabio Carvalho | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Son Heung-Min |
| 90' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.51 | 0.97 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.48 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 0.96 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Hákon Valdimarsson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.37 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.71 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Michael Kayode Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejan Kulusevski AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 0.83 |
| Son Heung-Min AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Djed Spence DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.63 |
| Ben Davies DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Archie Gray DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Richarlison FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Yves Bissouma DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Mikey Moore AMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Bergvall Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Dane Scarlett Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |