Brentford v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 16 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 9
xG per shot
0.28 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.60
Goals − xG
-0.80 – +0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
62.8%
Draw
24.6%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
12.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.94–0.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–0.96 | 2-0 10% | 59% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 2.80 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 14' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Adam Armstrong | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 21' |
Brentford |
Michael Kayode | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Goal | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 25' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 35' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 36' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.72 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dango Ouattara |
| 38' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | André |
| 40' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.59 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Sepp van den Berg |
| 43' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Adam Armstrong | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 44' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 52' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jackson Tchatchoua | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 55' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Adam Armstrong | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 59' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 63' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Santiago Bueno | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 67' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 75' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Angel Gomes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 76' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.48 | Set Piece | — | Goal | João Gomes |
| 78' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Hugo Bueno |
| 79' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 89' |
Brentford |
Reiss Nelson | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 96' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 1.78 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.07 | 1.82 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.59 | 2.07 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.41 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Mathias Jensen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Jordan Henderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.75 |
| Dango Ouattara MR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 1.36 | 1.72 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Kevin Schade ML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Kristoffer Ajer Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Reiss Nelson Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Armstrong FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 0.94 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.22 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Hugo Bueno DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| Mateus Mané AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| Angel Gomes Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |