Brest v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.96 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-1.39 – -0.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
49.6%
Draw
27.4%
Angers win
23.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.06 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 2.39 xGAngers 1.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Brest |
Hamidou Makalou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 11' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 13' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.20 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 31' |
 Angers |
Pierrick Capelle | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 39' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 46' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 52' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 53' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 54' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kamory Doumbia |
| 59' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Goduine Koyalipou |
| 67' |
Brest |
Lucas Tousart | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hamidou Makalou |
| 67' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 68' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierrick Capelle |
| 69' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 71' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daouda Guindo |
| 74' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 74' |
Angers |
Pierrick Capelle | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 76' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 78' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 85' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.49 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamidou Makalou |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| Hamidou Makalou DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.86 | 0.56 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.77 |
| Raphaël Le Guen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Pathé Mboup AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Tousart DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.12 | 0.78 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Hugo Magnetti Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Joris Chotard Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Kanté Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bradley Locko Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Sbaï FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.91 |
| Haris Belkebla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Lilian Raolisoa DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.63 |
| Branco van den Boomen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.91 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 80 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.04 | 0.97 |
| Pierrick Capelle MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| Florent Hanin DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Melvin Zinga Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jacques Ekomie Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Carlens Arcus Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Emmanuel Biumla Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |