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Brest v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 14 February 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–2
1.97 – 1.49 xG
Shots
18 – 11
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.03 – +0.50
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.11.72.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Gaetan Perrin 17' — goalNiakhate Ndiaye 59' — goalGaetan Perrin 73' — goalLudovic Ajorque 78' — goal
Brest 1.97 xGAuxerre 1.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ludovic Ajorque 4' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Julien Le Cardinal 8' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Justin Bourgault 14' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Kenny Lala 14' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Gaetan Perrin 17' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Gaetan Perrin 18' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Theo Bair 19' — Saved Shot (0.25 xG, Open Play)Kamory Doumbia 26' — Saved Shot (0.21 xG, Open Play)Kamory Doumbia 28' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Hamed Junior Traore 30' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Mahdi Camara 30' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Lassine Sinayoko 31' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kamory Doumbia 33' — Saved Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Hamed Junior Traore 39' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Gaetan Perrin 42' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Lassine Sinayoko 46' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Mama Baldé 46' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Niakhate Ndiaye 48' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Kamory Doumbia 50' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Kenny Lala 54' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Ludovic Ajorque 56' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Niakhate Ndiaye 59' — Goal (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Abdallah Sima 62' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Kamory Doumbia 66' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Gaetan Perrin 71' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Gaetan Perrin 73' — Goal (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ludovic Ajorque 78' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)Luc Zogbe 87' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Lassine Sinayoko 89' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Brest attacking right Auxerre attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
8' Brest Julien Le Cardinal 0.06 Set Piece Blocked Shot Kamory Doumbia
14' Brest Justin Bourgault 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Edimilson Fernandes
14' Brest Kenny Lala 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
17' Auxerre Gaetan Perrin 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Goal Theo Bair
18' Auxerre Gaetan Perrin 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lassine Sinayoko
19' Auxerre Theo Bair 0.25 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
26' Brest Kamory Doumbia 0.21 Open Play Saved Shot Kenny Lala
28' Brest Kamory Doumbia 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
30' Auxerre Hamed Junior Traore 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lassine Sinayoko
30' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot
31' Auxerre Lassine Sinayoko 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Gaetan Perrin
33' Brest Kamory Doumbia 0.43 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mahdi Camara
39' Auxerre Hamed Junior Traore 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ki-Jana Hoever
42' Auxerre Gaetan Perrin 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
46' Auxerre Lassine Sinayoko 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Theo Bair
46' Brest Mama Baldé 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ludovic Ajorque
48' Brest Niakhate Ndiaye 0.07 Set Piece Blocked Shot Kenny Lala
50' Brest Kamory Doumbia 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
54' Brest Kenny Lala 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
56' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mahdi Camara
59' Brest Niakhate Ndiaye 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Goal
62' Brest Abdallah Sima 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Justin Bourgault
66' Brest Kamory Doumbia 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
71' Auxerre Gaetan Perrin 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
73' Auxerre Gaetan Perrin 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Goal
78' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.49 Open Play Goal Mama Baldé
87' Brest Luc Zogbe 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pierre Lees-Melou
89' Auxerre Lassine Sinayoko 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gaetan Perrin

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ludovic Ajorque FW 90 1 0 3 1 0.65 0.09 0.76
Niakhate Ndiaye DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.57
Julien Le Cardinal DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 1.00
Kenny Lala DR 90 0 0 2 2 0.04 0.28 0.30
Edimilson Fernandes DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.79
Marco Bizot GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.49
Kamory Doumbia AMC 83 0 0 5 1 0.80 0.06 0.88
Justin Bourgault DL 83 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.11 0.42
Mama Baldé Sub 70 0 1 1 1 0.09 0.49 0.58
Mahdi Camara AMR 65 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.51 0.60
Hugo Magnetti DMC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Abdallah Sima Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.62
Pierre Lees-Melou Sub 25 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.50
Ibrahim Salah AML 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Luc Zogbe Sub 7 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Romain Faivre Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.50

Auxerre

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Gaetan Perrin AMR 90 2 0 5 2 0.67 0.11 0.99
Lassine Sinayoko AML 90 0 0 3 2 0.25 0.15 0.40
Clément Akpa DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Ki-Jana Hoever DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.26 0.26
Jubal DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Han-Noah Massengo DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Donovan Léon GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gideon Mensah DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Elisha Owusu DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Theo Bair FW 73 0 1 1 2 0.25 0.51 0.83
Hamed Junior Traore AMC 51 0 0 2 0 0.34 0.00 0.41
Ado Onaiwu Sub 39 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kévin Danois Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Florian Aye Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Assane Diousse Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ange-Loïc N’Gatta Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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