Brest v Le Havre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
2 – 0
Shots in box
6 – 11
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+0.74 – -1.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
54.2%
Draw
24.3%
Le Havre win
21.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDDWLLWDL last 10
scored 16
from 22.8 xG
conceded 15
from 12.5 xG
Le Havre are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.8 xG
conceded 13
from 17.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.60–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.88–0.99 | 1-0 11% | 55% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 1.26 xGLe Havre 1.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Le Havre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Brest |
Kenny Lala | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Le Havre |
Ayumu Seko | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Gourna Douath |
| 17' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arouna Sangante |
| 22' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 34' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 43' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 43' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kenny Lala |
| 51' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 51' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 54' |
Le Havre |
Kenny Quetant | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Le Havre |
Arouna Sangante | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 59' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arouna Sangante |
| 61' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 66' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Remy Labeau Lascary |
| 70' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kamory Doumbia |
| 79' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 82' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Reda Khadra |
| 87' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 89' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Koffi |
| 93' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Remy Labeau Lascary |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.29 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ayumu Seko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sofiane Boufal FWL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Arouna Sangante DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| Kenny Quetant FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mbwana Samatta Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Enzo Koffi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Stephan Zagadou Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Reda Khadra Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Yassine Kechta Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 0.51 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bradley Locko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Luc Zogbe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |