Brest v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 20 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 17
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.99
Goals − xG
+0.67 – -1.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
32.1%
Draw
20.7%
Marseille win
47.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDDWLLWDL last 10
scored 16
from 22.8 xG
conceded 15
from 12.5 xG
Marseille are finishing above their chances — 2.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLLLLWWW last 10
scored 22
from 19.6 xG
conceded 14
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.75 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 68% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 1.33 xGMarseille 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 7' |
 Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 13' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 19' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Vermeeren |
| 24' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Marseille |
Quinten Timber | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 28' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Hugo Magnetti |
| 34' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 36' |
Brest |
Michel Diaz | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 38' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Vermeeren |
| 39' |
Marseille |
Naif Aguerd | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 40' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe |
| 54' |
Marseille |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 54' |
Marseille |
Emerson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 54' |
Marseille |
Naif Aguerd | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 57' |
Marseille |
Naif Aguerd | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 58' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 58' |
Marseille |
Quinten Timber | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Igor Paixão |
| 65' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Marseille |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 74' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 84' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 91' |
Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.01 | 1.06 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.50 |
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.50 | 0.68 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bradley Locko Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Greenwood MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Naif Aguerd DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothy Weah DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Quinten Timber MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Amine Gouiri FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Igor Paixão ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Arthur Vermeeren MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hamed Junior Traore Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Himad Abdelli Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |