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Brest v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 2 November 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

0–1
1.02 – 1.92 xG
Shots
16 – 12
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 0.41
Goals − xG
-1.02 – -1.11
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Evann Guessand 41' — goal
Brest 1.02 xGNice 2.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mahdi Camara 1' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Dante 3' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Mama Baldé 4' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Pierre Lees-Melou 4' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Clauss 11' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jeremie Boga 17' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Ali-Cho 17' — Blocked Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Jeremie Boga 19' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Youssouf Ndayishimiye 19' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ali Abdi 20' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mama Baldé 25' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ludovic Ajorque 30' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Clauss 31' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ali Abdi 39' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 41' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Moïse Bombito 45' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, From Corner)Ludovic Ajorque 47' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, From Corner)Julien Le Cardinal 50' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Pierre Lees-Melou 50' — Shot On Post (0.02 xG, Open Play)Romain Del Castillo 50' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jordan Amavi 54' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mama Baldé 56' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Salah 72' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mahdi Camara 74' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Salah 77' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 84' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Pierre Lees-Melou 88' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Kamory Doumbia 89' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Brest attacking right Nice attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
3' Nice Dante 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot
4' Brest Mama Baldé 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
4' Brest Pierre Lees-Melou 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mahdi Camara
11' Nice Jonathan Clauss 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jeremie Boga
17' Nice Jeremie Boga 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Mohamed Ali-Cho
17' Nice Mohamed Ali-Cho 0.58 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
19' Nice Jeremie Boga 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mohamed Ali-Cho
19' Nice Youssouf Ndayishimiye 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
20' Nice Ali Abdi 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Youssouf Ndayishimiye
25' Brest Mama Baldé 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jordan Amavi
30' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.03 Open Play Saved Shot Kenny Lala
31' Nice Jonathan Clauss 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pablo Rosario
39' Nice Ali Abdi 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jeremie Boga
41' Nice Evann Guessand 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ali Abdi
45' Nice Moïse Bombito 0.38 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Jeremie Boga
47' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.37 From Corner Saved Shot Romain Del Castillo
50' Brest Julien Le Cardinal 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
50' Brest Pierre Lees-Melou 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Ludovic Ajorque
50' Brest Romain Del Castillo 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
54' Brest Jordan Amavi 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Romain Del Castillo
56' Brest Mama Baldé 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
72' Brest Ibrahim Salah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ludovic Ajorque
74' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
77' Brest Ibrahim Salah 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Kamory Doumbia
84' Nice Evann Guessand 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ali Abdi
88' Brest Pierre Lees-Melou 0.03 From Corner Saved Shot Romain Faivre
89' Brest Kamory Doumbia 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Julien Le Cardinal

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ludovic Ajorque FW 90 0 0 2 2 0.40 0.04 0.10
Pierre Lees-Melou MC 90 0 0 3 0 0.13 0.00 0.19
Julien Le Cardinal DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.03 0.17
Kenny Lala DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.10
Marco Bizot GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Soumaila Coulibaly DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Jordan Amavi DL 89 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.02 0.12
Mahdi Camara MC 80 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.08 0.27
Romain Del Castillo FWR 80 0 0 1 5 0.06 0.58 0.32
Mama Baldé FWL 70 0 0 3 0 0.17 0.00 0.28
Hugo Magnetti MC 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Kamory Doumbia Sub 21 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.03 0.07
Ibrahim Salah Sub 20 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Jonas Martin Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Romain Faivre Sub 10 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.00
Massadio Haidara Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Nice

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Evann Guessand AMC 90 1 0 2 0 0.57 0.00 0.57
Moïse Bombito DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.38 0.00 0.07
Ali Abdi DML 90 0 1 2 2 0.05 0.57 1.09
Dante DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 1.04
Pablo Rosario MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.87
Mohamed Abdelmonem DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.59
Marcin Bulka GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Mohamed Ali-Cho FW 77 0 0 1 2 0.58 0.37 0.97
Jonathan Clauss DMR 77 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.20
Youssouf Ndayishimiye MC 77 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.02 0.05
Jeremie Boga AMC 63 0 0 2 3 0.37 0.47 1.02
Gaetan Laborde Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Antoine Mendy Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sofiane Diop Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Youssoufa Moukoko Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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