Brest v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 7
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
1.79 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.65 – +0.02
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
52.4%
Draw
22.9%
Paris FC win
24.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLWLWDWW last 10
scored 21
from 22.2 xG
conceded 9
from 11.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.19 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 2.65 xGParis FC 1.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Paris FC attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Brest |
Hamidou Makalou | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Paris FC |
Vincent Marchetti | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 13' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maxime Lopez |
| 23' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.36 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 23' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Moses Simon |
| 31' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Paris FC |
Vincent Marchetti | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Willem Geubbels |
| 33' |
Paris FC |
Vincent Marchetti | 0.87 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 36' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 42' |
Brest |
Kenny Lala | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 42' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Brest |
Hamidou Makalou | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michel Diaz |
| 46' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 51' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 67' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 80' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Paris FC |
Maxime Lopez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 85' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Brest |
Kenny Lala | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Remy Labeau Lascary |
| 94' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Brest |
Michel Diaz | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brendan Chardonnet |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Del Castillo FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.91 | 0.57 | 0.26 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Joris Chotard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bradley Locko DL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kamory Doumbia MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hamidou Makalou MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mama Baldé FWL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Daouda Guindo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Lopez MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.83 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.98 |
| Thibault De Smet DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Obed Nkambadio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Ilan Kebbal FWR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.02 | 0.93 |
| Otávio DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Samir Chergui DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Moses Simon FWL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| Willem Geubbels FW | 62 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 0.45 |
| Vincent Marchetti MC | 48 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Adama Camara Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alimami Gory Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nhoa Sangui Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothée Kolodziejczak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |