Brest v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 18
On target
2 – 8
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-1.89 – +0.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
21.2%
Draw
17.5%
Paris Saint Germain win
61.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–2.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.28–2.85 | 1-2 8% | 78% | 68% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 1.89 xGParis Saint Germain 2.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Brest |
Kenny Lala | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 16' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe |
| 22' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 28' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vitinha |
| 32' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe |
| 35' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 38' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 38' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 40' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 44' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 58' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Illia Zabarnyi |
| 64' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 64' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 71' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 72' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 77' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 86' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 88' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 92' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 95' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.06 | 1.38 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.33 | 0.90 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.33 | 1.61 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Senny Mayulu FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.48 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 1.30 |
| Lee Kang-In MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.81 |
| William Pacho DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| Marquinhos Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Désiré Doué Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Quentin Ndjantou Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Del Castillo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.78 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.44 |
| Soumaila Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Radoslaw Majecki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bradley Locko DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Pathé Mboup AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Mama Baldé Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Daouda Guindo Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luc Zogbe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |