Brest v Reims — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
0 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.34 – -0.99
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
60.6%
Draw
23.2%
Reims win
16.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Reims are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.0 xG
conceded 9
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.21–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 0.34 xGReims 0.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Reims attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Brest |
Massadio Haidara | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Brest |
Pereira Lage | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 19' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Brest |
Pereira Lage | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Reims |
Mamadou Diakhon | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Amadou Koné |
| 26' |
Reims |
Joseph Okumu | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Akieme |
| 29' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Reims |
Amadou Koné | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Mamadou Diakhon |
| 42' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Brest |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Reims |
Mamadou Diakhon | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Reims |
Mory Gbane | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hafiz Ibrahim |
| 58' |
Brest |
Julien Le Cardinal | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 59' |
Brest |
Romain Faivre | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 62' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Reims |
Sergio Akieme | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cédric Kipré |
| 71' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Brest |
Niakhate Ndiaye | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 78' |
Reims |
Joseph Okumu | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Junya Ito |
| 80' |
Brest |
Edimilson Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pereira Lage FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Massadio Haidara DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julien Le Cardinal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Niakhate Ndiaye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| Marco Bizot GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Romain Faivre FWR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Magnetti MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kamory Doumbia Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Edimilson Fernandes Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Serigne Diop Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Reims
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keito Nakamura ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Joseph Okumu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Sergio Akieme DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mory Gbane MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Hiroki Sekine DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Cédric Kipré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| Hafiz Ibrahim FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Amadou Koné MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 0.62 |
| Mamadou Diakhon MR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0.58 |
| Junya Ito Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| John Finn Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Diakité Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |