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Brest v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 October 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–1
1.43 – 1.14 xG
Shots
12 – 6
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-0.43 – -0.14
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Romain Del Castillo 53' — goalJota 85' — goal
Brest 1.43 xGRennes 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Pereira Lage 17' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jordan Amavi 21' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mikayil Faye 25' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Hugo Magnetti 40' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Mahdi Camara 40' — Shot On Post (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Hugo Magnetti 42' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mahdi Camara 43' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Amine Gouiri 44' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Pierre Lees-Melou 51' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Romain Del Castillo 53' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Mahdi Camara 55' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Niakhate Ndiaye 63' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Brendan Chardonnet 68' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 71' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alidu Seidu 83' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jota 85' — Goal (0.95 xG, Open Play)Mama Baldé 87' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 94' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Brest attacking right Rennes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
17' Brest Pereira Lage 0.08 Open Play Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
21' Brest Jordan Amavi 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
25' Rennes Mikayil Faye 0.01 From Corner Saved Shot
40' Brest Hugo Magnetti 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ludovic Ajorque
40' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Shot On Post Romain Del Castillo
42' Brest Hugo Magnetti 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jordan Amavi
43' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ludovic Ajorque
44' Rennes Amine Gouiri 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ludovic Blas
51' Brest Pierre Lees-Melou 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
53' Brest Romain Del Castillo 0.76 Left Foot Goal
55' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Hugo Magnetti
63' Brest Niakhate Ndiaye 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Brendan Chardonnet
68' Brest Brendan Chardonnet 0.02 Set Piece Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
71' Rennes Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Azor Matusiwa
83' Rennes Alidu Seidu 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Albert Grønbæk
85' Rennes Jota 0.95 Open Play Left Foot Goal
87' Brest Mama Baldé 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jonas Martin
94' Rennes Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Andrés Gómez

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Hugo Magnetti MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.38 0.04 0.42
Niakhate Ndiaye DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.03
Brendan Chardonnet DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.04 0.00
Jordan Amavi DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.03 0.41
Kenny Lala DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ludovic Ajorque FW 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.37 0.37
Marco Bizot GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Romain Del Castillo FWR 83 1 0 1 3 0.76 0.14 0.45
Mahdi Camara MC 83 0 0 3 0 0.11 0.00 0.10
Pierre Lees-Melou MC 76 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.10
Pereira Lage FWL 75 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.10
Mama Baldé Sub 15 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Jonas Martin Sub 14 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Kamory Doumbia Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Romain Faivre Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rennes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Alidu Seidu DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.09
Mikayil Faye DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ludovic Blas AMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Christopher Wooh DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Steve Mandanda GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adrien Truffert DML 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Amine Gouiri AMC 77 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Azor Matusiwa MC 77 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.09
Hans Hateboer DMR 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Baptiste Santamaria MC 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Jota Sub 27 1 0 1 0 0.95 0.00 0.95
Glen Kamara Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Albert Grønbæk Sub 13 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.09
Andrés Gómez Sub 13 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Mahamadou Nagida Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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