Brest v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 13 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 10
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
16 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.39 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.65 – +0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
31.7%
Draw
26.1%
Strasbourg win
42.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDDWLLWDL last 10
scored 16
from 22.8 xG
conceded 15
from 12.5 xG
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 20
from 13.9 xG
conceded 21
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.27–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.43–1.61 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 61% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 2.65 xGStrasbourg 1.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joris Chotard |
| 5' |
 Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martial Godo |
| 7' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 8' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.72 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 12' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Goal | Kenny Lala |
| 16' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martial Godo |
| 19' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Goal | Julio Enciso |
| 21' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daouda Guindo |
| 22' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 29' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Brest |
Raphaël Le Guen | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe |
| 35' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 40' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 41' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Brest |
Michel Diaz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe |
| 51' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martial Godo |
| 59' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 65' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 68' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 69' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daouda Guindo |
| 70' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Brest |
Michel Diaz | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 78' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martial Godo |
| 79' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 81' |
Brest |
Hamidou Makalou | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 86' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pathé Mboup |
| 87' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Remy Labeau Lascary |
| 91' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1.32 | 0.18 | 1.23 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Raphaël Le Guen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1.47 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.65 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mama Baldé Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentín Barco DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.85 | 1.32 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Julio Enciso FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| Guela Doué DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Martial Godo AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1.13 |
| Diego Moreira AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yaya Diémé Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrese Noubissie Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |