Brest v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.08 – +1.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
40.8%
Draw
22.9%
Toulouse win
36.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLLDDD last 10
scored 13
from 15.9 xG
conceded 23
from 18.4 xG
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.37–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.34 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 1.08 xGToulouse 0.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Brest |
Kenny Lala | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
 Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mark McKenzie |
| 32' |
Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 33' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 39' |
Brest |
Lucas Tousart | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 42' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pape Diop |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 51' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 53' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 53' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joris Chotard |
| 58' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brendan Chardonnet |
| 60' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Brest |
Kenny Lala | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 67' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafik Messali |
| 81' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 86' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.67 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.43 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Soumaila Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.38 |
| Lucas Tousart AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aron Dønnum AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.11 | 0.54 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pape Diop MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibril Sidibe DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rafik Messali DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Santiago Hidalgo FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Julián Vignolo Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Vossah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |