Brest v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 6
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 4
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
3.42 – 0.44
Goals − xG
-2.04 – +0.69
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
34.7%
Draw
28.9%
Toulouse win
36.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDDWLLWDL last 10
scored 16
from 22.8 xG
conceded 15
from 12.5 xG
Toulouse have scored 16 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 12.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLDLDWDW last 10
scored 16
from 18.0 xG
conceded 13
from 12.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 4.04 xGToulouse 1.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yann Gboho |
| 10' |
 Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 17' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.40 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Mamady Diambou |
| 17' |
Brest |
Mamady Diambou | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Toulouse |
Thomas Jørgensen | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christ Tapé |
| 28' |
Brest |
Gautier Lloris | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 32' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bradley Locko |
| 36' |
Toulouse |
Ismaïl Diallo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Jørgensen |
| 42' |
Brest |
Kenny Lala | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Brest |
Mamady Diambou | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pathé Mboup |
| 45' |
Toulouse |
Christ Tapé | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 48' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Romain Del Castillo |
| 49' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 50' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.62 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Joris Chotard |
| 50' |
Brest |
Raphaël Le Guen | 0.62 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Brest |
Mamady Diambou | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 57' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joris Chotard |
| 58' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 61' |
Toulouse |
Christ Tapé | 0.44 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 64' |
Toulouse |
Niklas Schmidt | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Jørgensen |
| 71' |
Brest |
Kenny Lala | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Brest |
Mamady Diambou | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphaël Le Guen |
| 89' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Brest |
Lucas Tousart | 0.56 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Joris Chotard |
| 90' |
Brest |
Lucas Tousart | 0.54 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 90' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 92' |
Brest |
Raphaël Le Guen | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 94' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.43 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Hugo Magnetti |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Le Guen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.65 | 0.17 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.05 | 1.20 | 0.13 |
| Bradley Locko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Egil Selvik GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Mboup AML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mamady Diambou DMC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Mama Baldé Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Hugo Magnetti Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.45 | 0.01 |
| Joseph Nonge Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Lainé Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christ Tapé DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yann Gboho AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.84 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.83 |
| Thomas Jørgensen AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.49 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Julián Vignolo AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alexis Vossah DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ismaïl Diallo DR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rafik Messali Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Schmidt Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sion Oppong Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Hidalgo Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Seny Koumbassa Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |