Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 7
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.92 – +0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
23.3%
Draw
28.8%
Arsenal win
47.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.96–1.75 | 0-1 12% | 51% | 51% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 0.92 xGArsenal 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jurriën Timber |
| 11' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 17' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 34' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 38' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 52' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 57' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diego Gómez |
| 62' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 67' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 68' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 68' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 73' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 87' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Piero Hincapié DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Declan Rice DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Cristhian Mosquera DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gabriel Martinelli AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Kai Havertz Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Riccardo Calafiori Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Nørgaard Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georginio Rutter FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Olivier Boscagli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Diego Gómez AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Jack Hinshelwood AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Danny Welbeck Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Howell Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |