Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 20
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
7 – 16
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 1.81
Goals − xG
-0.43 – -1.17
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
21.9%
Draw
24.7%
Arsenal win
53.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 0.95–1.63 | 0-1 12% | 48% | 49% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 0.43 xGArsenal 4.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.41 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 8' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tariq Lamptey |
| 9' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jakub Moder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 11' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ben White |
| 12' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 14' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Dunk |
| 19' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 20' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 34' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Estupiñán |
| 43' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 43' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ben White |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Estupiñán | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 54' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jorginho |
| 70' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oleksandr Zinchenko |
| 71' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 85' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kai Havertz |
| 87' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 89' |
Arsenal |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 89' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.21 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 90' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Havertz FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.18 | 0.74 | 1.92 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.33 | 0.63 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.41 | 1.13 |
| Ben White DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1.78 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jorginho MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1.12 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 71 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.97 | 0.21 | 0.69 |
| Gabriel Jesus FWL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.10 | 0.58 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.12 | 0.49 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eddie Nketiah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fábio Vieira Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Adingra AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Estupiñán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Tariq Lamptey DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Julio Enciso AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jakub Moder AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| João Pedro Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |