Brighton and Hove Albion v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 19 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 12
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.49 – 0.89
Goals − xG
+0.00 – -0.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
41.8%
Draw
24.9%
Bournemouth win
33.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion are conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWLDWWWWL last 10
scored 23
from 21.0 xG
conceded 11
from 14.5 xG
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDLDDDLLWW last 10
scored 14
from 19.8 xG
conceded 15
from 12.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.63 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.00 xGBournemouth 1.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 7' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Brajan Gruda | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 7' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 11' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 12' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Jiménez |
| 13' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 13' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 35' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 36' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 37' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Alejandro Jiménez |
| 44' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 48' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 56' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 69' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 74' |
Bournemouth |
Alejandro Jiménez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Hill |
| 81' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Joël Veltman | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Dunk |
| 88' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 90' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 96' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Olivier Boscagli | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 97' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 99' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Olivier Boscagli |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Amine Adli AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMR | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bafode Diakite Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Veljko Milosavljevic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Diego Gómez AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Brajan Gruda AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Carlos Baleba Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Olivier Boscagli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.12 |