Brighton and Hove Albion v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 25 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 19
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 12
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.37
Goals − xG
-0.58 – -0.73
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
31.0%
Draw
25.9%
Bournemouth win
43.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–1.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.63 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 65% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 2.58 xGBournemouth 1.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 7' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diego Gómez |
| 11' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 15' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 17' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 18' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 28' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 30' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 33' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 36' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Tariq Lamptey |
| 39' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 58' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Webster |
| 60' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Milos Kerkez |
| 60' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 67' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 68' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 74' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Georginio Rutter |
| 78' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 80' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 82' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 92' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
Kepa | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lewis Cook DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| James Hill DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Dango Ouattara FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.89 | 0.31 | 1.19 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| David Brooks AMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marcus Tavernier Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Evanilson Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Sinisterra Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Georginio Rutter AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.45 | 1.30 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.80 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Tariq Lamptey DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Adam Webster DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| João Pedro FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Diego Gómez DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| Estupiñán DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Danny Welbeck Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jack Hinshelwood Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Mats Wieffer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Solly March Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |