Brighton and Hove Albion v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 27 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 8
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 7
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.52
Goals − xG
-1.35 – -0.96
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
48.3%
Draw
23.8%
Brentford win
27.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.25 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.35 xGBrentford 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | João Pedro |
| 4' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 7' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 8' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 18' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Brajan Gruda | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 22' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 29' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 37' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 38' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 38' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
 Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 41' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 42' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mads Roerslev |
| 55' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 57' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 58' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 63' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.43 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 69' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 73' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 78' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Joël Veltman | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 85' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yehor Yarmolyuk |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Dunk |
| 94' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Solly March | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.39 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Estupiñán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Brajan Gruda AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| Matt O'Riley DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.61 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Solly March Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.52 | 0.31 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| Mads Roerslev DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ben Mee DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Hákon Valdimarsson Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Kim Ji-Soo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |