Brighton and Hove Albion v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 14 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
5 – 0
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.93 – -0.65
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
32.8%
Draw
22.2%
Chelsea win
44.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.58–1.87 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 2.07 xGChelsea 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 14' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 17' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 26' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bart Verbruggen |
| 28' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 31' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 37' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Danny Welbeck |
| 40' |
Chelsea |
Malo Gusto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 60' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Danny Welbeck |
| 67' |
Chelsea |
Trevoh Chalobah | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Tyrique George | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Reece James |
| 72' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 73' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Joël Veltman | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yasin Ayari |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Tariq Lamptey | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yasin Ayari |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankuba Minteh DR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.16 | 0.86 |
| Joël Veltman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Kaoru Mitoma ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Tariq Lamptey DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Adam Webster DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Carlos Baleba MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 88 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Jack Hinshelwood MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Georginio Rutter MR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| João Pedro Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Diego Gómez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.48 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Filip Jorgensen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.45 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Pedro Neto AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Reece James Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |