Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 7
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-0.75 – +0.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
44.5%
Draw
29.1%
Crystal Palace win
26.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWLDWWWW last 10
scored 26
from 21.9 xG
conceded 9
from 13.7 xG
Crystal Palace have scored 12 from 13.7 expected and conceded 24 from 23.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWLDWL last 10
scored 12
from 13.7 xG
conceded 24
from 23.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.60 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 0.75 xGCrystal Palace 0.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 30' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 30' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 32' |
 Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 42' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 60' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Evann Guessand |
| 64' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Will Hughes |
| 72' |
Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Will Hughes |
| 93' |
Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Olivier Boscagli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Georginio Rutter AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Maxim De Cuyper DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Harry Howell AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Gómez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Welbeck Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Hinshelwood Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Jefferson Lerma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Will Hughes MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.00 |
| Yeremi Pino AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Evann Guessand Sub | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brennan Johnson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |