Brighton and Hove Albion v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 7
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.66 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.44 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
46.4%
Draw
29.2%
Everton win
24.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.18 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.44 xGEverton 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 1' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 2' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 2' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.15 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 18' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 51' |
 Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 55' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 66' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thierno Barry |
| 71' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 71' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 72' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yasin Ayari |
| 77' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 89' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 96' |
Everton |
Jake O'Brien | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaoru Mitoma FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.07 | 0.48 |
| Pascal Groß MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yasin Ayari MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Carlos Baleba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Maxim De Cuyper DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.03 |
| Georginio Rutter FWR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| James Milner Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Harrison Armstrong AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Dibling Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Nathan Patterson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |