Brighton and Hove Albion v Leicester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425

Premier League xG Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:07

Brighton and Hove Albion

2–2

3.70 – 1.98 xG

Leicester City

Shots

21 – 15

On target

7 – 6

Shots in box

15 – 11

xG per shot

0.18 – 0.14

Set-piece xG

1.58 – 0.64

Goals − xG

-1.70 – -0.04

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Brighton and Hove Albion win

61.4%

Draw

21.8%

Leicester City win

16.8%

612217

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WDWLWLLWLD last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.7 xG

Leicester City are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLLDLLWDWL last 10 scored 8 from 8.8 xG conceded 18 from 23.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	612217	1.95–0.91	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	681813	2.23–0.87	2-0 11%	60%	52%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Brighton and Hove Albion 3.70 xGLeicester City 2.04 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right Leicester City attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
6'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Danny Welbeck	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Matt O'Riley
7'	Leicester City	Stephy Mavididi	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Wilfred Ndidi
8'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Yankuba Minteh	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
10'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Simon Adingra	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
15'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Simon Adingra	0.37	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	João Pedro
20'	Leicester City	Wilfred Ndidi	0.05	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Bilal El Khannouss
22'	Leicester City	Stephy Mavididi	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Bilal El Khannouss
25'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Danny Welbeck	0.09	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Simon Adingra
26'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Simon Adingra	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Estupiñán
30'	Brighton and Hove Albion	João Pedro	0.76		Right Foot	Goal	—
31'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Danny Welbeck	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Yankuba Minteh
32'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Yasin Ayari	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	João Pedro
35'	Leicester City	Luke Thomas	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Wilfred Ndidi
36'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Simon Adingra	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	João Pedro
37'	Leicester City	Stephy Mavididi	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
40'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Matt O'Riley	0.23	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Simon Adingra
42'	Brighton and Hove Albion	João Pedro	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Carlos Baleba
45'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Simon Adingra	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	João Pedro
46'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Matt O'Riley	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Shot On Post	Jack Hinshelwood
47'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Danny Welbeck	0.06	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
48'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Simon Adingra	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	João Pedro
49'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Matt O'Riley	0.49	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Yankuba Minteh
49'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Simon Adingra	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Carlos Baleba
49'	Leicester City	Kasey McAteer	0.03	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Luke Thomas
54'	Brighton and Hove Albion	João Pedro	0.76		Right Foot	Goal	—
66'	Leicester City	Patson Daka	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Stephy Mavididi
71'	Leicester City	Kasey McAteer	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Boubakary Soumare
73'	Leicester City	Caleb Okoli	0.54	Set Piece	—	Goal	Bilal El Khannouss
84'	Leicester City	Patson Daka	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Kasey McAteer
84'	Leicester City	Patson Daka	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
85'	Leicester City	Boubakary Soumare	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
86'	Leicester City	Bilal El Khannouss	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Oliver Skipp
86'	Leicester City	Patson Daka	0.70	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
87'	Leicester City	Stephy Mavididi	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Bilal El Khannouss
91'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Brajan Gruda	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Solly March
91'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Danny Welbeck	0.12	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Solly March

Players