Brighton and Hove Albion v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 25 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Brighton and Hove Albion

0–4

0.57 – 1.91 xG

Manchester City

Shots

7 – 14

On target

3 – 6

Shots in box

5 – 10

xG per shot

0.08 – 0.14

Set-piece xG

0.08 – 0.23

Goals − xG

-0.57 – +2.09

AI prediction

dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Brighton and Hove Albion win

23.3%

Draw

22.5%

Manchester City win

54.2%

232354

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WDWLWLLWLD last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.7 xG

Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDWWDLWWW last 10 scored 21 from 23.7 xG conceded 9 from 13.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
dc-xg-oos	232354	1.15–1.87	1-1 10%	58%	58%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Brighton and Hove Albion 0.57 xGManchester City 1.91 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right Manchester City attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
2'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Danny Welbeck	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
14'	Manchester City	Nathan Aké	0.09	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Phil Foden
16'	Manchester City	Kevin De Bruyne	0.04	Open Play	—	Goal	Kyle Walker
18'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Lewis Dunk	0.08	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Valentín Barco
19'	Manchester City	Julián Álvarez	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Mateo Kovacic
22'	Manchester City	Julián Álvarez	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
22'	Manchester City	Kevin De Bruyne	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Mateo Kovacic
25'	Manchester City	Phil Foden	0.08	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Goal	—
33'	Manchester City	Phil Foden	0.37	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Bernardo Silva
36'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Valentín Barco	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	João Pedro
44'	Manchester City	Julián Álvarez	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
44'	Manchester City	Kevin De Bruyne	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Phil Foden
45'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Pascal Groß	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
49'	Manchester City	Phil Foden	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
58'	Manchester City	Julián Álvarez	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Phil Foden
59'	Manchester City	Julián Álvarez	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Josko Gvardiol
61'	Manchester City	Julián Álvarez	0.52	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Kyle Walker
63'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Simon Adingra	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
74'	Brighton and Hove Albion	Danny Welbeck	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Jan Paul van Hecke
84'	Brighton and Hove Albion	João Pedro	0.33	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Igor Julio
93'	Manchester City	Jéremy Doku	0.33	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—

Players

Manchester City

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Julián Álvarez FW	90	1	0	6	0	0.77	0.00	0.82
Nathan Aké DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.18
Ederson GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.10
Josko Gvardiol DL	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.14
Manuel Akanji DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.21
Mateo Kovacic MC	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.10	0.21
Kyle Walker DR	82	0	2	0	2	0.00	0.56	0.70
Rodri DMC	82	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.30
Bernardo Silva MR	81	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.37	0.57
Phil Foden ML	75	2	0	3	3	0.54	0.28	0.75
Kevin De Bruyne MC	75	1	0	3	0	0.18	0.00	0.25
Matheus Nunes Sub	15	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jack Grealish Sub	15	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jéremy Doku Sub	9	0	0	1	0	0.33	0.00	0.33
Rico Lewis Sub	8	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sergio Gómez Sub	8	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00