Brighton and Hove Albion v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.51
Goals − xG
-0.70 – +0.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
40.7%
Draw
28.6%
Manchester United win
30.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion are conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWLDWWWWL last 10
scored 23
from 21.0 xG
conceded 11
from 14.5 xG
Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLWDLDDDL last 10
scored 16
from 20.0 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–1.36 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 0.70 xGManchester United 2.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 12' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 19' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 32' |
 Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 34' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 39' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 43' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.92 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Patrick Dorgu |
| 51' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 52' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 53' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Maguire |
| 55' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 57' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 63' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 77' |
Manchester United |
Shea Lacey | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 78' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Solly March | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Charalampos Kostoulas |
| 91' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 94' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charalampos Kostoulas |
| 95' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jack Hinshelwood AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Diego Gómez AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| James Milner DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maxim De Cuyper AML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Solly March Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Carlos Baleba Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 1.10 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.92 | 1.36 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Bryan Mbeumo FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.33 | 1.29 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1.13 |
| Mason Mount DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.32 |
| Patrick Dorgu AML | 65 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.82 |
| Shea Lacey Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tyler Fletcher Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tyrell Malacia Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |