Brighton and Hove Albion v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 11
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.97 – +1.00
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
57.1%
Draw
20.3%
Manchester United win
22.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.19–1.32 | 2-1 9% | 68% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.97 xGManchester United 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Adam Webster | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 10' |
 Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 11' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Valentín Barco | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 17' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jakub Moder | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 20' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 22' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Adam Webster | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Scott McTominay | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 27' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Lallana |
| 28' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Adam Webster | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 31' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Adam Lallana | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 36' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Adam Lallana | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | João Pedro |
| 41' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Pedro |
| 49' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Adam Lallana | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 49' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Moder |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 51' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 54' |
Manchester United |
Scott McTominay | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 62' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jakub Moder | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Manchester United |
Scott McTominay | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 63' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 67' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 72' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Casemiro |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Christian Eriksen |
| 92' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Anssumane Fati | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.13 | 0.13 | 1.23 |
| Adam Webster DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Jakub Moder DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.58 | 0.88 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 1.29 |
| Igor Julio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Jason Steele GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1.17 |
| Valentín Barco DL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 1.34 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.27 | 0.85 |
| Simon Adingra AMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
| Adam Lallana AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 1.26 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anssumane Fati Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Billy Gilmour Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tariq Lamptey Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Dalot DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 0.59 |
| Scott McTominay FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Casemiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.52 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Sofyan Amrabat DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Bruno Fernandes FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jonny Evans Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Rasmus Højlund Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Raphael Varane Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Christian Eriksen Sub | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |