Brighton and Hove Albion v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.75 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.14 – -0.29
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
57.2%
Draw
20.7%
Manchester United win
22.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–1.25 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 2.14 xGManchester United 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Milner |
| 10' |
 Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 17' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joël Veltman |
| 22' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 26' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Maguire |
| 26' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 31' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.87 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 45' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
James Milner | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 51' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
James Milner | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Pedro |
| 53' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Zirkzee |
| 54' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 57' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.15 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Yankuba Minteh |
| 59' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 65' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 69' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 69' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 76' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Billy Gilmour | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 90' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 90' |
Manchester United |
Scott McTominay | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 91' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joël Veltman |
| 92' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Dunk |
| 92' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Goal | Simon Adingra |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.14 | 1.10 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 1.12 |
| Billy Gilmour DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1.19 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Jason Steele GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.08 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.14 | 0.14 | 1.29 |
| James Milner DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Carlos Baleba Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.44 | 0.07 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amad Diallo Traore AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.03 | 0.88 |
| Casemiro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Diogo Dalot DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Bruno Fernandes FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Mount AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.02 | 0.54 |
| Scott McTominay Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Matthijs de Ligt Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antony Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |