Brighton and Hove Albion v Southampton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 29 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 10
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-0.87 – +0.05
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
68.5%
Draw
17.2%
Southampton win
14.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLDLLDLL last 10
scored 6
from 7.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.50–1.07 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.87 xGSouthampton 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Southampton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Yasin Ayari |
| 16' |
Southampton |
Cameron Archer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 21' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Estupiñán |
| 23' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Estupiñán |
| 28' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tariq Lamptey |
| 37' |
Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Armstrong |
| 38' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Estupiñán |
| 40' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 42' |
Southampton |
Ryan Manning | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 43' |
Southampton |
Cameron Archer | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Estupiñán | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | João Pedro |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Southampton |
Adam Armstrong | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 58' |
Southampton |
Adam Armstrong | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Manning |
| 58' |
Southampton |
Flynn Downes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 61' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Estupiñán |
| 65' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Igor Julio |
| 72' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 73' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Estupiñán |
| 79' |
Southampton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joe Ayodele-Aribo |
| 82' |
Southampton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 91' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 98' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 102' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaoru Mitoma ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.12 | 1.23 |
| Georginio Rutter MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Yasin Ayari MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1.13 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.77 |
| Estupiñán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Igor Julio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.57 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| João Pedro FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Matt O'Riley MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Tariq Lamptey DR | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| Lewis Dunk Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mats Wieffer Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Evan Ferguson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
Southampton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Archer FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Adam Armstrong ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Tyler Dibling MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.62 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ryan Manning DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.70 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Jack Stephens DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Joe Lumley GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Taylor Harwood-Bellis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Flynn Downes MC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| Ryan Fraser Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Ayodele-Aribo Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Brereton Díaz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |