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Brighton and Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 22 January 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
11 – 8
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.03 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.40 – -1.23
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.40 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Pablo Sarabia 0' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 2' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jan Paul van Hecke 4' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Danny Welbeck 10' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Danny Welbeck 10' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Facundo Buonanotte 10' — Blocked Shot (0.29 xG, From Corner)Pedro Neto 21' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jan Paul van Hecke 25' — Saved Shot (0.58 xG, Set Piece)Pablo Sarabia 29' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 41' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 45' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 45' — Missed Shot (0.63 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 51' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Craig Dawson 55' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Evan Ferguson 75' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Matheus Cunha 78' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Mario Lemina 80' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 81' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Billy Gilmour 87' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
2' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Estupiñán
4' Brighton and Hove Albion Jan Paul van Hecke 0.02 Set Piece Blocked Shot Jack Hinshelwood
10' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jack Hinshelwood
10' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.11 From Corner Missed Shot Estupiñán
10' Brighton and Hove Albion Facundo Buonanotte 0.29 From Corner Blocked Shot Danny Welbeck
21' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pedro Neto 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pablo Sarabia
25' Brighton and Hove Albion Jan Paul van Hecke 0.58 Set Piece Saved Shot Pascal Groß
29' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pedro Neto
41' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pascal Groß
45' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pedro Neto
45' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.63 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
51' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Danny Welbeck
55' Wolverhampton Wanderers Craig Dawson 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
75' Brighton and Hove Albion Evan Ferguson 0.03 From Corner Blocked Shot Pascal Groß
78' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pedro Neto
80' Wolverhampton Wanderers Mario Lemina 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matheus Cunha
81' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Pascal Groß
87' Brighton and Hove Albion Billy Gilmour 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jack Hinshelwood

Players

Brighton and Hove Albion

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jan Paul van Hecke DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.61 0.00 0.23
João Pedro FWL 90 0 0 4 0 0.33 0.00 0.33
Billy Gilmour MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.31
Pascal Groß MC 90 0 0 0 4 0.00 0.76 0.33
Jason Steele GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Jack Hinshelwood DR 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.06 0.16
Lewis Dunk DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Estupiñán DL 74 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.17 0.31
James Milner MC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Facundo Buonanotte FWR 67 0 0 1 0 0.29 0.00 0.19
Danny Welbeck FW 67 0 0 2 2 0.13 0.41 0.14
Evan Ferguson Sub 23 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.00
Tariq Lamptey Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Adam Lallana Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adam Webster Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benicio Baker-Boaitey Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wolverhampton Wanderers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matheus Cunha AMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.89 0.12 1.11
Mario Lemina MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.24
Pedro Neto FW 90 0 0 1 3 0.06 0.37 0.54
Craig Dawson DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.00
Tommy Doyle MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Nélson Semedo DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Max Kilman DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Matt Doherty DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
José Sá GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Toti DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pablo Sarabia AMC 72 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.06 0.19
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Tawanda Chirewa Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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