Brighton and Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 14
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
13 – 14
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.60
Goals − xG
+0.49 – +0.86
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
64.1%
Draw
19.9%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
16.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.12–0.96 | 2-0 10% | 59% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.51 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 8' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tommy Doyle | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 12' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 19' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Yasin Ayari |
| 21' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yasin Ayari |
| 22' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Joël Veltman | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 32' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
| 36' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yasin Ayari |
| 37' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 38' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 42' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 44' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Georginio Rutter |
| 49' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Estupiñán | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 58' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Estupiñán |
| 61' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 66' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Gomes |
| 69' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Santiago Bueno | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Sarabia |
| 74' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 83' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Craig Dawson | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Sarabia |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Evan Ferguson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tariq Lamptey |
| 87' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Craig Dawson | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 87' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pablo Sarabia |
| 87' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 92' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tommy Doyle |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaoru Mitoma ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Yasin Ayari MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| Estupiñán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Igor Julio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Georginio Rutter FW | 84 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| Carlos Baleba MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu MR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Evan Ferguson Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mats Wieffer Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Tariq Lamptey Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| Craig Dawson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommy Doyle MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.37 |
| João Gomes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| Nélson Semedo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Lemina MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Toti DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pablo Sarabia Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| Carlos Forbs Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |