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Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Bristol City win
31.0%
model 34.9%
Draw
23.9%
model 24.8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
45.1%
model 40.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.7%
  2. 1-2 8.5%
  3. 2-1 7.9%
  4. 2-2 7.0%
  5. 0-2 5.2%

Goals

Over 2.566.4% Under 2.533.6%
BTTS yes68.1% BTTS no31.9%
Bristol City 1+80.7% Bristol City 2+48.9%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1+83.0% Wolverhampton Wanderers 2+52.9%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.77. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
46/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 32%
55.8% fair odds 1.79
strong signal · 764 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
84.0% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Wolverhampton Wanderers have an estimated 45.1% win probability, against 31.0% for Bristol City and 23.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for Bristol City and 1.77 for Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Why Bristol City

Bristol City carry the stronger rating, 1446 Elo against 1417. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.64 to 1.77. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Wolverhampton Wanderers can win

Nothing in the data singles out Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Key players

Wolverhampton Wanderers's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Adam Armstrong (0.34), Tolu Arokodare (0.24), Mateus Mané (0.19).

Availability

No lineup on record for Bristol City, so availability is unknown. 1 of Wolverhampton Wanderers's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Bristol City: 42% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Wolverhampton Wanderers: 50% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.54 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Wolverhampton Wanderers are the model's most likely outcome at 45.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.64–1.77 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.79–2.17 1-1 8% 76% 75%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win 46.1% 47.4% 29.1% 1.63× 2.11
Bristol City to win 31.6% 30.4% 43.4% 0.70× 3.29
Draw 22.3% 24.5% 27.6% 0.89× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers & both teams score 32.2% 29.6% 13.9% 2.13× 3.38
Bristol City & both teams score 22.9% 21.8% 20.2% 1.08× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.5% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
Wolverhampton Wanderers & not both score 13.9% 13.3% 15.2% 0.87× 7.54
Bristol City & not both score 8.7% 8.3% 23.3% 0.36× 12.00
Draw & not both score 2.8% 4.9% 7.3% 0.67× 20.53
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 1.5 42.8% 40.3% 21.4% 1.88× 2.48
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 2.5 38.3% 34.9% 16.2% 2.15× 2.87
Bristol City & over 1.5 29.1% 26.1% 32.5% 0.80× 3.84
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 3.5 27.1% 26.1% 6.8% 3.83× 3.84
Bristol City & over 2.5 26.0% 26.0% 26.4% 0.99× 3.84
Draw & over 1.5 19.5% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.55
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 3.5 19.0% 18.0% 22.3% 0.81× 5.55
Bristol City & over 3.5 17.5% 18.0% 11.1% 1.62× 5.55
Bristol City & under 3.5 14.1% 12.8% 32.4% 0.40× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 11.2% 12.8% 5.9% 2.16× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 11.1% 12.8% 21.8% 0.59× 7.79
Draw & over 3.5 11.2% 12.8% 5.9% 2.16× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 11.1% 12.8% 21.8% 0.59× 7.79
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 2.5 7.7% 7.9% 12.9% 0.61× 12.63
Bristol City & under 2.5 5.6% 7.9% 17.1% 0.46× 12.63
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 1.5 3.3% 4.8% 7.7% 0.62× 20.82
Bristol City & under 1.5 2.5% 4.8% 11.0% 0.43× 20.83
Draw & under 1.5 2.8% 4.8% 7.3% 0.66× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1UP) 66.4% 70.2% — — 1.43
Bristol City (1UP) 54.8% 52.5% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2UP) 46.1% 50.0% — — 2.00
Bristol City (2UP) 31.6% 30.2% — — 3.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win 2nd half 42.6% 42.0% — — 2.38
Bristol City to win 2nd half 28.9% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half drawn 28.5% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 in 2nd half 72.7% 75.6% — — 1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 in 2nd half 62.7% 60.3% — — 1.66
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 in 2nd half 37.3% 39.7% — — 2.52
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 in 2nd half 27.3% 24.4% — — 4.09
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City under 1.5 in 2nd half 72.8% 74.4% — — 1.34
Bristol City over 0.5 in 2nd half 63.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Bristol City under 0.5 in 2nd half 36.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Bristol City over 1.5 in 2nd half 27.2% 25.6% — — 3.91
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+2.5) 93.1% 92.1% 91.9% 1.00× 1.09
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+1.5) 83.6% 82.6% 80.7% 1.02× 1.21
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+0.5) 68.4% 68.7% 56.6% 1.21× 1.46
Bristol City (+0.5) 53.9% 52.4% 70.9% 0.74× 1.91
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-0.5) 46.1% 47.6% 29.1% 1.64× 2.10
Bristol City (-0.5) 31.6% 31.3% 43.4% 0.72× 3.19
Bristol City (-1.5) 16.4% 17.4% 19.3% 0.90× 5.74
Bristol City (-2.5) 6.9% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede 83.3% 81.5% 77.6% 1.05× 1.23
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet 16.7% 18.5% 22.4% 0.83× 5.40
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede in 1st half 53.7% 50.9% — — 1.96
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half 46.3% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede in 2nd half 63.9% 62.0% — — 1.61
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet in 2nd half 36.1% 38.0% — — 2.63
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 6.5 corners 90.8% 89.9% — — 1.11
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 5.5 corners 84.2% 81.4% — — 1.23
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 4.5 corners 74.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 corners 60.3% 61.7% — — 1.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 corners 57.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 corners 42.7% 42.8% — — 2.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 corners 39.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 4.5 corners 25.7% 28.4% — — 3.53
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 5.5 corners 15.8% 18.6% — — 5.38
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 6.5 corners 9.2% 10.1% — — 9.88
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 goals 88.5% 87.8% 69.5% 1.26× 1.14
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 goals 82.6% 81.5% 97.8% 0.83× 1.23
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 goals 63.7% 63.2% 30.0% 2.11× 1.58
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 goals 63.2% 63.2% 90.6% 0.70× 1.58
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 goals 36.8% 36.8% 9.4% 3.90× 2.72
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 goals 36.3% 36.8% 70.0% 0.53× 2.72
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 goals 17.4% 18.5% 2.2% 8.37× 5.41
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 goals 11.5% 12.2% 30.5% 0.40× 8.21
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half 78.5% 75.3% — — 1.33
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half 58.0% 62.3% — — 1.61
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half 42.0% 37.7% — — 2.65
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half 21.5% 24.7% — — 4.05
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores more in 2nd half 46.6% 48.1% — — 2.08
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores equally in both 28.5% 26.5% — — 3.77
Wolverhampton Wanderers scores more in 1st half 24.9% 21.9% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City (away no bet) 58.6% 57.4% 61.1% 0.94× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.4% 42.6% 38.9% 1.10× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers even goals 50.7% 52.6% 52.4% 1.00× 1.90
Wolverhampton Wanderers odd goals 49.3% 47.4% 47.6% 1.00× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 67.2% 68.2% — — 1.47
Both halves over 1.5 goals 32.8% 31.8% — — 3.15
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 83.7% 79.0% — — 1.27
Both halves under 1.5 goals 16.3% 21.0% — — 4.76
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 74.4% 71.9% — — 1.39
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 2+ in a row 50.9% 50.8% — — 1.97
Bristol City to score 2+ in a row 39.2% 36.6% — — 2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row 34.1% 29.0% — — 3.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+ in a row 21.8% 19.5% — — 5.13
Bristol City to score 3+ in a row 13.5% 12.2% — — 8.21
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City corners (+3.5) 90.9% 89.6% — — 1.12
Bristol City corners (+2.5) 85.4% 84.5% — — 1.18
Bristol City corners (+1.5) 77.6% 74.8% — — 1.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+3.5) 76.1% 74.8% — — 1.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+2.5) 66.8% 65.9% — — 1.52
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+1.5) 55.8% 57.2% — — 1.75
Bristol City corners (-1.5) 44.2% 42.8% — — 2.33
Bristol City corners (-2.5) 33.2% 34.1% — — 2.93
Bristol City corners (-3.5) 23.9% 25.2% — — 3.97
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-1.5) 22.4% 25.2% — — 3.97
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-2.5) 14.6% 15.5% — — 6.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-3.5) 9.1% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 63.0% 48.4% — — 2.07
9-11 corners 22.3% 25.7% — — 3.90
12+ corners 14.6% 21.2% — — 4.72
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 89.8% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 85.4% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 10.5 corners 79.5% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 72.0% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 8.5 corners 63.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 7.5 corners 52.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 7.5 corners 47.4% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 8.5 corners 37.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 9.5 corners 28.0% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 10.5 corners 20.5% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 14.6% 16.9% — — 5.90
Over 12.5 corners 10.2% 16.9% — — 5.92
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 10.2% 11.5% 3.0% 3.86× 8.72
1-1 8.3% 7.4% 14.5% 0.51× 13.51
1-2 8.0% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.51
2-1 6.6% 7.4% 11.5% 0.65× 13.51
2-2 7.2% 7.4% 5.2% 1.43× 13.51
1-3 5.8% 7.4% 3.1% 2.42× 13.51
2-3 5.2% 7.4% 1.7% 4.36× 13.51
0-0 2.8% 1.7% 7.3% 0.23× 58.30
0-1 3.3% 1.7% 7.7% 0.22× 58.30
0-2 4.5% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 58.29
0-3 3.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.30
0-4 1.8% 1.7% 0.4% 4.04× 58.31
1-0 2.5% 1.7% 11.0% 0.16× 58.30
1-4 3.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2.88× 58.30
2-0 3.1% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.30
2-4 2.8% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.30
3-0 1.8% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.31
3-1 4.0% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.30
3-2 4.3% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.30
3-3 3.1% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.30
3-4 1.7% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.31
4-0 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.31
4-1 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.31
4-2 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.31
4-3 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% 10.09× 58.31
4-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.1% 20.18× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2nd half DNB) 59.6% 59.6% — — 1.68
Bristol City (2nd half DNB) 40.4% 40.4% — — 2.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT (DNB) 54.2% 56.3% — — 1.78
Bristol City leading at HT (DNB) 45.8% 43.7% — — 2.29
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City or Wolverhampton Wanderers (12) 77.7% 75.5% 72.4% 1.04× 1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (X2) 68.4% 69.6% 56.6% 1.23× 1.44
Bristol City or draw (1X) 53.9% 52.6% 70.9% 0.74× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at HT 70.3% 74.4% — — 1.34
Bristol City or Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT 64.9% 61.1% — — 1.64
Bristol City or draw at HT 64.8% 61.1% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (1UP) 68.4% 76.5% — — 1.31
Bristol City or draw (1UP) 54.8% 58.8% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City or Wolverhampton Wanderers in 2nd half 71.5% 73.9% — — 1.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw in 2nd half 71.1% 73.9% — — 1.35
Bristol City or draw in 2nd half 57.4% 58.0% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 52.5% 50.0% — — 2.00
Neither half drawn 47.5% 50.0% — — 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (DNB) 59.3% 58.1% 40.1% 1.45× 1.72
Bristol City (DNB) 40.7% 41.9% 59.9% 0.70× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score first 53.2% 53.4% — — 1.87
Bristol City to score first 44.0% 41.8% — — 2.40
No goal scored 2.8% 4.4% — — 22.99
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 74.6% 62.6% 54.4% 1.15× 1.60
Not both teams to score 25.4% 37.4% 45.6% 0.82× 2.68
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 66.3% 57.0% 39.9% 1.43× 1.75
Not both score & under 2.5 16.2% 21.5% 37.1% 0.58× 4.66
Not both score & over 2.5 9.2% 8.3% 8.6% 0.97× 12.06
Both score & under 2.5 8.3% 8.3% 14.5% 0.57× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 66.0% 71.1% 89.0% 0.80× 1.41
Both teams to score 2+ 34.0% 28.9% 11.0% 2.64× 3.46
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 53.2% 51.7% — — 1.93
Both teams to score in 2nd half 46.8% 48.3% — — 2.07
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 36.4% 43.0% — — 2.33
Both score 2nd half only 32.3% 28.8% — — 3.48
Both score 1st half only 16.8% 14.9% — — 6.72
Both score in both halves 14.5% 10.8% — — 9.27
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 68.7% 72.7% — — 1.38
Both teams to score by HT 31.3% 27.3% — — 3.66
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 73.0% 75.1% — — 1.33
A half without a goal 27.0% 24.9% — — 4.02
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 45.2% 47.2% 22.4% 2.10× 2.12
2-3 goals 35.6% 35.0% 50.5% 0.69× 2.86
7+ goals 10.6% 16.9% 1.4% 12.44× 5.91
0-1 goals 8.6% 7.6% 25.9% 0.30× 13.08
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+ 36.8% 35.9% 9.4% 3.81× 2.78
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 2 26.9% 27.4% 20.6% 1.33× 3.65
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 1 24.8% 22.3% 39.6% 0.56× 4.49
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 0 11.5% 12.9% 30.5% 0.42× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City to score exactly 1 29.9% 26.6% 37.0% 0.72× 3.77
Bristol City to score exactly 2 26.8% 26.6% 24.6% 1.08× 3.77
Bristol City to score 3+ 26.7% 26.5% 16.1% 1.64× 3.77
Bristol City to score exactly 0 16.7% 18.8% 22.4% 0.84× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT 35.2% 38.9% — — 2.57
Draw at HT 35.1% 38.9% — — 2.57
Bristol City leading at HT 29.7% 25.6% — — 3.91
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: 1 53.9% 52.2% — — 1.92
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: 2 27.6% 26.5% — — 3.77
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: X 18.5% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:1) 68.4% 65.3% 56.6% 1.15× 1.53
Bristol City (0:1) 16.4% 17.8% 19.3% 0.92× 5.62
Draw (0:1) 15.2% 17.8% 24.2% 0.73× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:2) 83.6% 83.0% 80.7% 1.03× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 9.5% 7.7% 11.3% 0.68× 13.04
Bristol City (0:2) 6.9% 7.7% 8.1% 0.95× 13.06
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:3) 93.1% 92.7% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.5% 2.4% 4.8% 0.50× 41.94
Bristol City (0:3) 2.4% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:4) 97.6% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.7% 1.2% 2.4% 0.51× 81.71
Bristol City (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.11× 81.82
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City (1:0) 53.9% 54.1% 70.9% 0.76× 1.85
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1:0) 27.6% 25.1% 11.7% 2.14× 3.99
Draw (1:0) 18.5% 17.1% 17.4% 0.98× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City (2:0) 72.5% 76.5% 88.3% 0.87× 1.31
Draw (2:0) 14.0% 10.3% 8.6% 1.20× 9.70
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2:0) 13.6% 10.3% 3.2% 3.19× 9.71
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 52.4% 50.0% — — 2.00
1st half highest scoring 26.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 21.1% 24.4% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City to concede 88.5% 85.7% 69.5% 1.23× 1.17
Bristol City clean sheet 11.5% 14.3% 30.5% 0.47× 6.98
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City to concede in 1st half 58.0% 62.3% — — 1.61
Bristol City clean sheet in 1st half 42.0% 37.7% — — 2.65
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City to concede in 2nd half 72.7% 72.9% — — 1.37
Bristol City clean sheet in 2nd half 27.3% 27.1% — — 3.70
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City under 6.5 corners 79.3% 76.5% — — 1.31
Bristol City over 2.5 corners 72.2% 71.9% — — 1.39
Bristol City under 5.5 corners 69.8% 66.7% — — 1.50
Bristol City under 4.5 corners 57.6% 57.5% — — 1.74
Bristol City over 3.5 corners 56.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Bristol City under 3.5 corners 43.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Bristol City over 4.5 corners 42.4% 42.5% — — 2.35
Bristol City over 5.5 corners 30.2% 33.3% — — 3.01
Bristol City under 2.5 corners 27.8% 28.1% — — 3.56
Bristol City over 6.5 corners 20.7% 23.5% — — 4.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City under 3.5 goals 89.3% 87.3% 94.8% 0.92× 1.15
Bristol City over 0.5 goals 83.3% 82.2% 77.6% 1.06× 1.22
Bristol City under 2.5 goals 73.3% 74.2% 83.9% 0.89× 1.35
Bristol City over 1.5 goals 53.4% 53.2% 40.6% 1.31× 1.88
Bristol City under 1.5 goals 46.6% 46.8% 59.4% 0.79× 2.14
Bristol City over 2.5 goals 26.7% 25.8% 16.1% 1.60× 3.88
Bristol City under 0.5 goals 16.7% 17.8% 22.4% 0.79× 5.62
Bristol City over 3.5 goals 10.7% 12.7% 5.2% 2.45× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City under 1.5 in 1st half 82.0% 84.0% — — 1.19
Bristol City over 0.5 in 1st half 53.7% 50.7% — — 1.97
Bristol City under 0.5 in 1st half 46.3% 49.3% — — 2.03
Bristol City over 1.5 in 1st half 18.0% 16.0% — — 6.27
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City scores more in 2nd half 40.5% 41.6% — — 2.40
Bristol City scores equally in both 32.6% 33.3% — — 3.01
Bristol City scores more in 1st half 26.9% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (home no bet) 67.4% 64.2% 51.3% 1.25× 1.56
Draw (home no bet) 32.6% 35.8% 48.7% 0.74× 2.79
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City even goals 51.4% 50.7% 50.5% 1.01× 1.97
Bristol City odd goals 48.6% 49.3% 49.5% 0.99× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 19.6% 18.6% — — 5.37
HT 0-1 16.7% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-0 14.8% 11.0% — — 9.07
HT 1-1 13.1% 11.0% — — 9.09
Any other HT score 9.8% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 0-2 7.3% 6.9% — — 14.54
HT 2-0 5.8% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 1-2 5.6% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 2-1 5.0% 2.4% — — 42.08
HT 2-2 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.26
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 27.2% 27.3% — — 3.66
Bristol City at HT / Bristol City at FT 19.1% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 14.4% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.1% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Bristol City at FT 9.7% 6.1% — — 16.42
Bristol City at HT / Draw at FT 6.0% 6.1% — — 16.52
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% — — 16.54
Bristol City at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.85
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Bristol City at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score last 53.2% 52.2% — — 1.92
Bristol City to score last 43.9% 40.1% — — 2.49
No goal scored 2.8% 4.4% — — 22.99
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.2% 95.6% — — 1.05
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time 66.4% 69.3% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 62.5% 61.2% — — 1.63
Bristol City to lead by 1 at any time 54.8% 50.7% — — 1.97
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time 37.7% 34.8% — — 2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 28.0% 25.3% — — 3.95
Bristol City to lead by 2 at any time 25.7% 25.2% — — 3.96
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time 17.9% 14.8% — — 6.74
Bristol City to lead by 3 at any time 10.1% 10.6% — — 9.47
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City most corners 56.1% 55.6% — — 1.80
Wolverhampton Wanderers most corners 32.4% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 11.5% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 80.8% 83.4% 72.8% 1.15× 1.20
1-5 goals 76.4% 78.7% 88.8% 0.89× 1.27
2-5 goals 70.6% 72.3% 70.2% 1.03× 1.38
3-6 goals 65.0% 63.3% 47.2% 1.34× 1.58
1-4 goals 61.0% 63.3% 83.3% 0.76× 1.58
2-4 goals 55.2% 59.1% 64.7% 0.91× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.8% 53.2% 44.5% 1.19× 1.88
4-6 goals 45.2% 48.4% 22.4% 2.16× 2.07
1-3 goals 41.4% 43.6% 69.1% 0.63× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.3% 39.2% 39.1% 1.00× 2.55
2-3 goals 35.6% 39.2% 50.5% 0.78× 2.55
4-5 goals 35.0% 39.2% 19.8% 1.98× 2.55
5-6 goals 25.7% 30.2% 8.2% 3.70× 3.31
1-2 goals 21.7% 24.4% 44.4% 0.55× 4.09
7+ goals 10.6% 14.8% 1.4% 10.88× 6.76
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers never behind 42.3% 48.7% — — 2.05
Bristol City never behind 30.8% 36.2% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.2% 50.9% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.8% 49.1% 50.6% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.2% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 47.8% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.1% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.9% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.2% 95.4% 92.7% 1.03× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 91.4% 92.3% 74.1% 1.25× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 79.2% 77.3% 96.0% 0.81× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 75.5% 77.3% 48.4% 1.60× 1.29
Under 4.5 goals 63.8% 61.7% 90.6% 0.68× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 55.8% 58.6% 23.7% 2.47× 1.71
Under 3.5 goals 44.2% 41.4% 76.3% 0.54× 2.42
Over 4.5 goals 36.2% 38.3% 9.4% 4.06× 2.61
Under 2.5 goals 24.5% 22.7% 51.6% 0.44× 4.40
Over 5.5 goals 20.8% 22.7% 4.0% 5.68× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 8.6% 7.7% 25.9% 0.30× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 2.8% 4.6% 7.3% 0.63× 21.83
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 89.8% 86.8% 65.1% 1.33× 1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 88.2% 86.7% 98.6% 0.88× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 75.4% 75.9% 95.8% 0.79× 1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 69.5% 67.5% 31.5% 2.14× 1.48
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 55.0% 51.9% 89.0% 0.58× 1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 45.0% 48.1% 11.0% 4.37× 2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 30.5% 32.5% 68.5% 0.47× 3.08
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 24.6% 24.1% 4.2% 5.71× 4.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 11.8% 13.3% 1.4% 9.50× 7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 10.2% 13.2% 34.9% 0.38× 7.55
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 80.4% 85.6% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half 77.4% 78.2% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 51.2% 53.4% — — 1.87
Over 1.5 in 1st half 48.8% 46.6% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 1st half 22.6% 21.8% — — 4.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 19.6% 14.4% — — 6.95
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 89.9% 85.4% — — 1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 67.7% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 59.1% 55.2% — — 1.81
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 40.9% 44.8% — — 2.23
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 32.3% 31.5% — — 3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 10.1% 14.6% — — 6.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City not to score in both halves 65.7% 69.9% — — 1.43
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to score in both halves 57.9% 58.1% — — 1.72
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score in both halves 42.1% 41.9% — — 2.39
Bristol City to score in both halves 34.3% 30.1% — — 3.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 74.6% 66.5% 54.4% 1.22× 1.51
Only Wolverhampton Wanderers scores 13.9% 11.0% 15.2% 0.73× 9.06
Only Bristol City scores 8.7% 7.1% 23.3% 0.31× 13.99
Neither team scores 2.8% 4.6% 7.3% 0.63× 21.61
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 20.8% 22.6% 4.0% 5.65× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 19.8% 17.5% 24.8% 0.70× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 19.5% 17.5% 14.4% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 15.9% 17.5% 25.7% 0.68× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 15.5% 17.4% 5.5% 3.16× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 5.8% 7.6% 18.7% 0.41× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 2.8% 4.5% 7.3% 0.61× 22.36
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 31.6% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 26.2% 28.6% — — 3.50
3+ goals in 1st half 22.6% 21.4% — — 4.67
No goals in 1st half 19.6% 15.8% — — 6.34
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 67.7% 61.7% — — 1.62
1 goal in 2nd half 22.2% 22.9% — — 4.37
No goals in 2nd half 10.1% 14.4% — — 6.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City not to win both halves 91.3% 94.1% — — 1.06
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win both halves 84.8% 83.6% — — 1.20
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win both halves 15.2% 16.4% — — 6.10
Bristol City to win both halves 8.7% 5.9% — — 17.03
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win either half 62.6% 65.0% — — 1.54
Bristol City to win neither half 50.1% 54.3% — — 1.84
Bristol City to win either half 49.9% 45.7% — — 2.19
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win neither half 37.4% 35.0% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bristol City not to win to nil 91.3% 92.1% 76.7% 1.20× 1.09
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win to nil 86.1% 88.1% 84.8% 1.04× 1.14
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win to nil 13.9% 11.9% 15.2% 0.78× 8.41
Bristol City to win to nil 8.7% 7.9% 23.3% 0.34× 12.62
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.3% 24.1% 27.6% 0.87× 4.15
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 1 18.5% 17.0% 17.4% 0.98× 5.87
Bristol City by 1 15.2% 17.0% 24.2% 0.70× 5.87
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 2 14.0% 11.8% 8.6% 1.37× 8.50
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 3+ 13.6% 11.8% 3.2% 3.64× 8.50
Bristol City by 2 9.5% 7.2% 11.3% 0.64× 13.90
Bristol City by 3+ 6.9% 7.2% 8.1% 0.89× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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