Burgos v Ceuta — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Burgos

18:30 UTC

Ceuta

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 83h before kick-off

Burgos win

51.1%

model 53.6%

Draw

27.1%

model 25.6%

Ceuta win

21.7%

model 20.8%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 15.0%
1-1 11.8%
2-0 11.0%
0-0 9.5%
2-1 9.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	41.1%	Under 2.5	58.9%
BTTS yes	43.4%	BTTS no	56.6%
Burgos 1+	77.8%	Burgos 2+	44.4%
Ceuta 1+	56.1%	Ceuta 2+	19.9%

Expected goals 1.51 – 0.82. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

58/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

56.7% fair odds 1.76

moderate signal · 919 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.4% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1163 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Burgos carry the stronger rating, 1583 Elo against 1448.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Burgos have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 27.1% for the draw and 21.7% for Ceuta. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.50 for Burgos and 0.82 for Ceuta.

Why Burgos

Burgos carry the stronger rating, 1583 Elo against 1448. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.1%. A combined 2.33 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Ceuta can win

Nothing in the data singles out Ceuta.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Burgos, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Ceuta, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Burgos: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Ceuta: 49% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Burgos are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.9%. Confidence 58/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	542621	1.51–0.82	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	542619	1.45–0.74	1-0 16%	38%	40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to win	53.6%	52.0%	45.5%	1.14×	1.93
Draw	25.6%	27.6%	26.6%	1.04×	3.63
Ceuta to win	20.8%	22.1%	28.0%	0.79×	4.53

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos & not both score	34.5%	32.8%	23.6%	1.39×	3.05
Burgos & both teams score	19.2%	17.8%	22.0%	0.81×	5.63
Draw & both teams score	16.1%	17.7%	17.5%	1.01×	5.64
Ceuta & not both score	12.7%	12.2%	13.4%	0.90×	8.22
Draw & not both score	9.5%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.63
Ceuta & both teams score	8.1%	7.3%	14.7%	0.50×	13.66

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos & under 3.5	40.6%	43.9%	32.2%	1.36×	2.28
Burgos & over 1.5	38.7%	37.6%	32.6%	1.15×	2.66
Burgos & over 2.5	27.6%	25.5%	26.3%	0.97×	3.92
Burgos & under 2.5	26.0%	25.5%	19.3%	1.32×	3.92
Draw & under 2.5	21.3%	21.5%	20.3%	1.06×	4.65
Draw & under 3.5	21.3%	21.5%	20.3%	1.06×	4.65
Ceuta & under 3.5	17.5%	17.6%	19.6%	0.89×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	16.1%	17.6%	17.5%	1.00×	5.70
Burgos & under 1.5	15.0%	12.7%	13.0%	0.98×	7.86
Burgos & over 3.5	13.0%	12.7%	13.3%	0.95×	7.86
Ceuta & over 1.5	12.5%	12.7%	19.4%	0.65×	7.86
Ceuta & under 2.5	11.6%	12.7%	11.6%	1.10×	7.87
Draw & under 1.5	9.5%	7.5%	9.1%	0.82×	13.40
Ceuta & over 2.5	9.2%	7.5%	16.6%	0.45×	13.40
Ceuta & under 1.5	8.3%	7.5%	8.7%	0.86×	13.40
Draw & over 2.5	4.3%	4.6%	6.4%	0.71×	21.92
Draw & over 3.5	4.3%	4.6%	6.4%	0.71×	21.92
Ceuta & over 3.5	3.3%	4.6%	8.5%	0.54×	21.96

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (1UP)	65.2%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Ceuta (1UP)	35.7%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (2UP)	53.6%	54.0%	—	—	1.85
Ceuta (2UP)	20.8%	21.0%	—	—	4.77

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to win 2nd half	42.1%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
2nd half drawn	37.9%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Ceuta to win 2nd half	20.1%	22.2%	—	—	4.51

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta (+2.5)	88.9%	89.0%	92.3%	0.96×	1.12
Burgos (+0.5)	79.2%	78.6%	72.0%	1.09×	1.27
Ceuta (+1.5)	72.5%	73.1%	80.5%	0.91×	1.37
Burgos (-0.5)	53.6%	51.6%	45.5%	1.14×	1.94
Ceuta (+0.5)	46.4%	48.4%	54.5%	0.89×	2.07
Burgos (-1.5)	27.5%	26.9%	19.5%	1.38×	3.71
Ceuta (-0.5)	20.8%	21.4%	28.0%	0.76×	4.68
Burgos (-2.5)	11.1%	11.0%	7.7%	1.43×	9.12

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta to concede	77.8%	76.1%	77.5%	0.98×	1.31
Ceuta clean sheet	22.2%	23.9%	22.5%	1.06×	4.18

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta clean sheet in 1st half	52.4%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Ceuta to concede in 1st half	47.6%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta under 6.5 corners	90.3%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Ceuta under 5.5 corners	82.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Ceuta under 4.5 corners	70.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Ceuta over 2.5 corners	65.4%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Ceuta under 3.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Ceuta over 3.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Ceuta under 2.5 corners	34.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Ceuta over 4.5 corners	29.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Ceuta over 5.5 corners	17.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Ceuta over 6.5 corners	9.7%	10.0%	—	—	9.97

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta under 3.5 goals	99.0%	97.4%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Ceuta under 2.5 goals	94.9%	92.7%	89.2%	1.04×	1.08
Ceuta under 1.5 goals	80.1%	82.1%	69.4%	1.18×	1.22
Ceuta over 0.5 goals	56.1%	57.6%	67.3%	0.86×	1.74
Ceuta under 0.5 goals	43.9%	42.4%	32.7%	1.30×	2.36
Ceuta over 1.5 goals	19.9%	17.9%	30.6%	0.58×	5.59
Ceuta over 2.5 goals	5.1%	7.3%	10.8%	0.67×	13.70
Ceuta over 3.5 goals	1.0%	2.6%	3.0%	0.87×	37.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta under 1.5 in 1st half	95.6%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Ceuta under 0.5 in 1st half	72.0%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Ceuta over 0.5 in 1st half	28.0%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Ceuta over 1.5 in 1st half	4.4%	3.9%	—	—	25.43

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (away no bet)	67.7%	71.7%	63.1%	1.14×	1.40
Draw (away no bet)	32.3%	28.3%	36.9%	0.77×	3.53

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta even goals	59.7%	58.0%	54.7%	1.06×	1.72
Ceuta odd goals	40.3%	42.0%	45.3%	0.93×	2.38

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.0%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.0%	8.1%	—	—	12.42

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	54.5%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals	45.5%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.2%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Burgos to score 2+ in a row	38.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.0%	17.8%	—	—	5.62
Ceuta to score 2+ in a row	14.3%	12.2%	—	—	8.17
Burgos to score 3+ in a row	14.3%	12.2%	—	—	8.17
Ceuta to score 3+ in a row	2.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.68

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos corners (+3.5)	91.3%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Burgos corners (+2.5)	85.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Ceuta corners (+3.5)	80.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Burgos corners (+1.5)	77.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Ceuta corners (+2.5)	70.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Ceuta corners (+1.5)	58.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Burgos corners (-1.5)	41.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Burgos corners (-2.5)	29.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Ceuta corners (-1.5)	23.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Burgos corners (-3.5)	20.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Ceuta corners (-2.5)	14.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Ceuta corners (-3.5)	8.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.56

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	59.4%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	14.3%	21.2%	—	—	4.72

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	90.7%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	85.7%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 10.5 corners	78.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	70.1%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 8.5 corners	59.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	52.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	47.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	40.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	29.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 10.5 corners	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 11.5 corners	14.3%	17.0%	—	—	5.87
Over 12.5 corners	9.3%	16.6%	—	—	6.02

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.0%	11.6%	13.0%	0.89×	8.62
1-1	11.8%	11.6%	11.2%	1.03×	8.63
2-0	11.0%	11.6%	6.4%	1.81×	8.64
0-0	9.5%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.74
2-1	9.1%	7.3%	10.1%	0.72×	13.74
0-1	8.3%	7.3%	8.7%	0.83×	13.74
3-0	5.5%	7.3%	3.0%	2.39×	13.75
1-2	5.0%	1.8%	7.0%	0.26×	55.38
2-2	3.7%	1.8%	5.7%	0.32×	55.42
3-1	4.6%	1.8%	4.5%	0.40×	55.39
0-2	3.3%	1.8%	2.9%	0.61×	55.43
1-3	1.4%	1.8%	3.6%	0.50×	55.47
3-2	1.9%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	55.46
4-0	2.1%	1.8%	1.2%	1.56×	55.46
4-1	1.7%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.47
Any other score	2.0%	1.8%	2.7%	0.66×	55.46
0-3	0.9%	1.8%	1.3%	1.43×	55.49
0-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.7%	2.45×	55.50
1-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.8%	2.14×	55.50
2-3	1.0%	1.8%	2.3%	0.78×	55.48
2-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.7%	2.45×	55.50
3-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.7%	2.45×	55.50
3-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.2%	8.58×	55.51
4-2	0.7%	1.8%	1.2%	1.56×	55.49
4-3	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	5.72×	55.50
4-4	0.0%	1.8%	0.2%	8.58×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos leading at HT (DNB)	69.9%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Ceuta leading at HT (DNB)	30.1%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos or draw (1X)	79.2%	77.9%	72.0%	1.08×	1.28
Burgos or Ceuta (12)	74.4%	72.4%	73.4%	0.99×	1.38
Ceuta or draw (X2)	46.4%	48.1%	54.5%	0.88×	2.08

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos or draw at HT	83.7%	81.8%	—	—	1.22
Ceuta or draw at HT	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Burgos or Ceuta at HT	54.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos or draw (1UP)	79.2%	84.8%	—	—	1.18
Ceuta or draw (1UP)	46.4%	54.9%	—	—	1.82

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos or draw in 2nd half	79.9%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Burgos or Ceuta in 2nd half	62.1%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Ceuta or draw in 2nd half	57.9%	60.5%	—	—	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.8%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Neither half drawn	33.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (DNB)	72.1%	71.3%	61.9%	1.15×	1.40
Ceuta (DNB)	27.9%	28.7%	38.1%	0.75×	3.48

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to score first	58.5%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Ceuta to score first	32.0%	31.8%	—	—	3.14
No goal scored	9.5%	6.3%	—	—	15.85

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	56.7%	56.7%	46.0%	1.23×	1.76
Both teams to score	43.3%	43.3%	54.0%	0.80×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	47.1%	45.3%	39.8%	1.14×	2.21
Both score & over 2.5	31.5%	34.4%	42.9%	0.80×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	11.8%	11.7%	11.2%	1.04×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.7%	6.3%	1.39×	11.43

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.2%	88.8%	85.6%	1.04×	1.13
Both teams to score 2+	8.8%	11.2%	14.4%	0.78×	8.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.7%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.4%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	19.3%	18.3%	—	—	5.47
Both score 1st half only	10.3%	11.5%	—	—	8.68
Both score in both halves	3.0%	4.8%	—	—	20.90

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.7%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	13.3%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	54.0%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
A goal in each half	46.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	45.9%	41.4%	1.11×	2.18
0-1 goals	32.7%	31.6%	30.7%	1.03×	3.16
4-6 goals	19.6%	20.8%	26.6%	0.78×	4.81
7+ goals	1.0%	1.9%	1.6%	1.22×	51.95

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta to score exactly 0	43.9%	41.6%	32.7%	1.27×	2.40
Ceuta to score exactly 1	36.1%	34.6%	36.9%	0.94×	2.89
Ceuta to score exactly 2	14.9%	13.5%	19.9%	0.68×	7.41
Ceuta to score 3+	5.1%	7.5%	10.8%	0.70×	13.27

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to score exactly 1	33.4%	30.6%	35.6%	0.86×	3.27
Burgos to score exactly 2	25.1%	27.0%	25.0%	1.08×	3.70
Burgos to score exactly 0	22.2%	22.9%	22.5%	1.02×	4.36
Burgos to score 3+	19.2%	18.5%	17.1%	1.08×	5.39

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.0%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Burgos leading at HT	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Ceuta leading at HT	16.3%	18.2%	—	—	5.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos -1: 2	46.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Burgos -1: 1	27.5%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Burgos -1: X	26.1%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta (0:1)	46.4%	48.1%	54.5%	0.88×	2.08
Burgos (0:1)	27.5%	26.3%	19.5%	1.35×	3.80
Draw (0:1)	26.1%	26.2%	26.1%	1.01×	3.81

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta (0:2)	72.5%	73.2%	80.5%	0.91×	1.37
Draw (0:2)	16.4%	16.3%	12.0%	1.36×	6.14
Burgos (0:2)	11.1%	11.7%	7.7%	1.52×	8.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta (0:3)	88.9%	88.4%	92.3%	0.96×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	7.5%	6.9%	5.4%	1.29×	14.45
Burgos (0:3)	3.7%	2.3%	2.4%	0.97×	42.80

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta (0:4)	96.3%	98.0%	97.6%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.7%	1.3%	2.1%	0.60×	79.99
Burgos (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	0.4%	2.94×	80.83

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (1:0)	79.2%	78.2%	72.0%	1.09×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	14.4%	11.8%	18.0%	0.66×	8.45
Ceuta (1:0)	6.4%	8.5%	10.2%	0.84×	11.74

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos (2:0)	93.6%	91.7%	89.8%	1.02×	1.09
Draw (2:0)	4.9%	2.7%	7.0%	0.39×	36.62
Ceuta (2:0)	1.5%	2.7%	3.3%	0.82×	37.44

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.6%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	27.1%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to concede	56.1%	59.5%	67.3%	0.88×	1.68
Burgos clean sheet	43.9%	40.5%	32.7%	1.24×	2.47

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos clean sheet in 1st half	72.0%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Burgos to concede in 1st half	28.0%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos under 6.5 corners	81.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Burgos over 2.5 corners	76.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Burgos under 5.5 corners	70.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Burgos over 3.5 corners	60.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Burgos under 4.5 corners	56.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Burgos over 4.5 corners	43.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Burgos under 3.5 corners	39.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Burgos over 5.5 corners	29.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Burgos under 2.5 corners	23.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Burgos over 6.5 corners	18.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos under 3.5 goals	93.4%	92.1%	93.7%	0.98×	1.09
Burgos under 2.5 goals	80.8%	82.4%	82.9%	0.99×	1.21
Burgos over 0.5 goals	77.8%	76.8%	77.5%	0.99×	1.30
Burgos under 1.5 goals	55.6%	55.6%	58.0%	0.96×	1.80
Burgos over 1.5 goals	44.4%	44.4%	42.0%	1.06×	2.25
Burgos under 0.5 goals	22.2%	23.2%	22.5%	1.03×	4.30
Burgos over 2.5 goals	19.2%	17.6%	17.1%	1.03×	5.67
Burgos over 3.5 goals	6.6%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.68

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos under 1.5 in 1st half	86.2%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Burgos under 0.5 in 1st half	52.4%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Burgos over 0.5 in 1st half	47.6%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Burgos over 1.5 in 1st half	13.8%	12.3%	—	—	8.16

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.1%	54.2%	48.7%	1.11×	1.85
Ceuta (home no bet)	44.9%	45.8%	51.3%	0.89×	2.18

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos even goals	52.5%	50.3%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Burgos odd goals	47.5%	49.7%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.6%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
HT 1-0	24.4%	22.7%	—	—	4.41
HT 0-1	12.4%	11.2%	—	—	8.93
HT 1-1	8.0%	7.7%	—	—	12.99
HT 2-0	7.9%	7.7%	—	—	12.99
Any other HT score	3.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.81
HT 2-1	2.6%	2.5%	—	—	39.85
HT 0-2	2.0%	2.5%	—	—	39.88
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.92
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.5%	—	—	39.98

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos at HT / Burgos at FT	32.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Draw at HT / Burgos at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Ceuta at HT / Ceuta at FT	10.2%	11.9%	—	—	8.37
Draw at HT / Ceuta at FT	9.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.17
Burgos at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.32
Ceuta at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.35
Ceuta at HT / Burgos at FT	2.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.42
Burgos at HT / Ceuta at FT	1.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.46

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos to score last	58.5%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Ceuta to score last	32.0%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
No goal scored	9.5%	6.3%	—	—	15.85

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.5%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Burgos to lead by 1 at any time	65.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Ceuta to lead by 1 at any time	35.7%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Burgos to lead by 2 at any time	32.5%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.0%	11.4%	—	—	8.80
Burgos to lead by 3 at any time	12.9%	11.3%	—	—	8.82
Ceuta to lead by 2 at any time	9.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.10
Ceuta to lead by 3 at any time	2.1%	2.6%	—	—	38.55

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos most corners	53.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Ceuta most corners	33.8%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	12.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.9%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.8%	81.5%	78.0%	1.04×	1.23
1-3 goals	69.9%	68.4%	62.9%	1.09×	1.46
2-6 goals	66.3%	68.3%	67.9%	1.01×	1.46
2-5 goals	64.1%	62.3%	64.3%	0.97×	1.61
2-4 goals	58.6%	58.8%	56.5%	1.04×	1.70
1-2 goals	49.4%	48.0%	41.9%	1.15×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.0%	41.4%	1.16×	2.08
3-6 goals	40.1%	43.6%	47.6%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	38.0%	38.8%	44.0%	0.88×	2.57
3-4 goals	32.4%	34.1%	36.2%	0.94×	2.93
4-6 goals	19.6%	18.2%	26.6%	0.68×	5.51
4-5 goals	17.5%	18.1%	23.0%	0.79×	5.53
5-6 goals	7.7%	8.8%	11.5%	0.77×	11.35
7+ goals	1.0%	2.0%	1.6%	1.27×	49.90

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos never behind	54.8%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Ceuta never behind	25.3%	30.8%	—	—	3.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.9%	50.1%	48.4%	1.04×	1.99
Odd number of goals	50.1%	49.9%	51.6%	0.97×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.0%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	43.0%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.9%	95.6%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	91.3%	92.9%	87.1%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	90.5%	92.9%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	79.4%	78.3%	72.0%	1.09×	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	67.3%	65.5%	69.3%	0.94×	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	58.9%	57.8%	50.9%	1.13×	1.73
Over 2.5 goals	41.1%	42.2%	49.1%	0.86×	2.37
Under 1.5 goals	32.7%	34.5%	30.7%	1.13×	2.90
Over 3.5 goals	20.6%	21.7%	28.0%	0.77×	4.61
Under 0.5 goals	9.5%	7.1%	9.1%	0.77×	14.13
Over 4.5 goals	8.7%	7.1%	12.9%	0.55×	14.15
Over 5.5 goals	3.1%	4.4%	5.1%	0.85×	22.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.0%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.7%	97.2%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.1%	92.7%	84.8%	1.09×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	74.1%	72.2%	64.5%	1.12×	1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	55.7%	55.3%	61.5%	0.90×	1.81
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	44.3%	44.7%	38.5%	1.16×	2.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	25.9%	27.8%	35.5%	0.78×	3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.9%	7.3%	15.2%	0.48×	13.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.3%	2.8%	5.6%	0.50×	35.94
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.0%	2.8%	1.6%	1.69×	36.30

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.4%	92.2%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.4%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.6%	37.0%	—	—	2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.6%	7.8%	—	—	12.87

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	84.5%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.2%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	61.0%	60.8%	—	—	1.65
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	15.5%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta not to score in both halves	89.1%	84.6%	—	—	1.18
Burgos not to score in both halves	72.6%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Burgos to score in both halves	27.4%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
Ceuta to score in both halves	10.9%	15.4%	—	—	6.50

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	43.3%	45.7%	54.0%	0.85×	2.19
Only Burgos scores	34.5%	36.2%	23.6%	1.53×	2.76
Only Ceuta scores	12.7%	10.8%	13.4%	0.80×	9.25
Neither team scores	9.5%	6.7%	9.1%	0.73×	14.95

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.1%	24.7%	20.4%	1.21×	4.05
Exactly 1 goals	23.3%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	20.5%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	11.9%	12.4%	15.2%	0.81×	8.09
Exactly 0 goals	9.5%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.11
Exactly 5 goals	5.6%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.16
6 or more goals	3.1%	4.4%	5.1%	0.85×	22.98

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	39.0%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
1 goal in 2nd half	35.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
No goals in 2nd half	25.8%	28.3%	—	—	3.53

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta not to win both halves	96.8%	96.7%	—	—	1.03
Burgos not to win both halves	84.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Burgos to win both halves	15.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.87
Ceuta to win both halves	3.2%	3.3%	—	—	30.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta to win neither half	66.9%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Burgos to win either half	64.0%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Burgos to win neither half	36.0%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Ceuta to win either half	33.1%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ceuta not to win to nil	87.3%	88.3%	86.6%	1.02×	1.13
Burgos not to win to nil	65.5%	64.7%	76.4%	0.85×	1.55
Burgos to win to nil	34.5%	35.3%	23.6%	1.50×	2.83
Ceuta to win to nil	12.7%	11.7%	13.4%	0.87×	8.52

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burgos by 1	26.1%	28.0%	26.1%	1.07×	3.57
Draw	25.6%	28.0%	26.6%	1.05×	3.57
Burgos by 2	16.4%	17.0%	12.0%	1.42×	5.90
Ceuta by 1	14.4%	11.9%	18.0%	0.66×	8.42
Burgos by 3+	11.1%	11.8%	7.7%	1.54×	8.45
Ceuta by 2	4.9%	2.9%	7.0%	0.41×	35.07
Ceuta by 3+	1.5%	2.8%	3.3%	0.86×	35.57