Burnley v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
3 – 12
On target
0 – 7
Shots in box
2 – 9
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.64 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.68 – -0.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
9.4%
Draw
17.5%
Arsenal win
73.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.71–2.32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.65–2.54 | 0-2 13% | 62% | 44% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 0.68 xGArsenal 2.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.66 | From Corner | — | Goal | Gabriel |
| 18' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 31' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 31' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 34' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Goal | Leandro Trossard |
| 37' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 55' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 65' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 70' |
 Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Burnley |
Florentino Luís | 0.59 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maxime Estève |
| 81' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Arsenal |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Merino |
| 96' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florentino Luís MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Quilindschy Hartman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.00 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Cullen MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zian Flemming FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Josh Laurent DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaidon Anthony ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hannibal Mejbri Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Edwards Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.77 | 0.16 | 1.53 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.02 | 1.03 |
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| Martín Zubimendi MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Eberechi Eze MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 48 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.92 | 1.63 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Piero Hincapié Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Nørgaard Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |