Burnley v Birmingham City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 25 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Burnley

19:45 UTC

Birmingham City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 753h before kick-off

Burnley win

44.1%

model 42.5%

Draw

28.0%

model 29.5%

Birmingham City win

27.9%

model 28.0%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.1%
1-0 9.9%
0-0 9.6%
2-1 8.9%
2-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.1%	Under 2.5	53.9%
BTTS yes	52.2%	BTTS no	47.8%
Burnley 1+	75.7%	Burnley 2+	41.3%
Birmingham City 1+	66.9%	Birmingham City 2+	30.4%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

44/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Burnley under 5.5 corners

Home corners O/U

81.0% fair odds 1.24

moderate signal · 9952 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4336 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Burnley.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Burnley have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 27.9% for Birmingham City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for Burnley and 1.11 for Birmingham City.

Why Burnley

Nothing in the data singles out Burnley.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Birmingham City can win

Birmingham City carry the stronger rating, 1496 Elo against 1396.

Key players

Burnley's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Zian Flemming (0.35), Jaidon Anthony (0.24), Marcus Edwards (0.15).

Availability

1 of Burnley's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Birmingham City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Burnley: 50% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Birmingham City: 46% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Burnley are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.1%. Confidence 44/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDLLLLLDLD last 10 scored 6 from 10.4 xG conceded 19 from 20.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	423028	1.41–1.11	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	463024	1.38–0.94	1-1 14%	41%	47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to win	45.7%	47.3%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
Draw	30.4%	30.4%	27.6%	1.10×	3.29
Birmingham City to win	24.0%	24.5%	29.1%	0.84×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley & not both score	27.8%	25.2%	23.3%	1.08×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Burnley & both teams score	17.9%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Birmingham City & not both score	13.7%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.54
Draw & not both score	11.3%	13.3%	7.3%	1.82×	7.54
Birmingham City & both teams score	10.2%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley & under 3.5	34.6%	30.8%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
Burnley & over 1.5	33.6%	30.8%	32.5%	0.95×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	25.6%	26.1%	21.8%	1.20×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.6%	26.1%	21.8%	1.20×	3.84
Burnley & over 2.5	24.2%	21.6%	26.4%	0.82×	4.63
Burnley & under 2.5	21.4%	21.6%	17.1%	1.27×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Birmingham City & under 3.5	19.3%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.56
Birmingham City & over 1.5	16.3%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Burnley & under 1.5	12.0%	12.8%	11.0%	1.16×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	11.3%	12.8%	7.3%	1.76×	7.79
Birmingham City & over 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Birmingham City & under 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	12.9%	0.99×	7.79
Burnley & over 3.5	11.1%	12.8%	11.1%	1.15×	7.79
Birmingham City & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.8%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.81
Birmingham City & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	6.8%	0.71×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (1UP)	59.5%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Birmingham City (1UP)	40.1%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (2UP)	45.7%	49.9%	—	—	2.01
Birmingham City (2UP)	24.0%	23.8%	—	—	4.20

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.8%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Burnley to win 2nd half	37.0%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Birmingham City to win 2nd half	23.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.0%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Birmingham City under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.0%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Birmingham City over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.0%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Birmingham City over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.0%	13.1%	—	—	7.64

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Burnley over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.5%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Burnley under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.5%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Burnley over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	17.4%	—	—	5.75

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (+2.5)	91.5%	92.1%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Birmingham City (+1.5)	77.3%	78.5%	80.7%	0.97×	1.27
Burnley (+0.5)	76.0%	78.5%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Birmingham City (+0.5)	54.3%	52.4%	56.6%	0.93×	1.91
Burnley (-0.5)	45.7%	47.6%	43.4%	1.10×	2.10
Birmingham City (-0.5)	24.0%	21.5%	29.1%	0.74×	4.65
Burnley (-1.5)	22.7%	21.5%	19.3%	1.12×	4.65
Burnley (-2.5)	8.5%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to concede	74.9%	76.7%	77.6%	0.99×	1.30
Birmingham City clean sheet	25.1%	23.3%	22.4%	1.04×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City clean sheet in 1st half	55.2%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Birmingham City to concede in 1st half	44.8%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to concede in 2nd half	54.5%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Birmingham City clean sheet in 2nd half	45.5%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 6.5 corners	80.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Birmingham City under 5.5 corners	71.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Birmingham City over 2.5 corners	71.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Birmingham City under 4.5 corners	59.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Birmingham City over 3.5 corners	55.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Birmingham City under 3.5 corners	44.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Birmingham City over 4.5 corners	40.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Birmingham City under 2.5 corners	29.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Birmingham City over 5.5 corners	28.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Birmingham City over 6.5 corners	19.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Birmingham City under 2.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Birmingham City under 1.5 goals	75.9%	76.2%	70.0%	1.09×	1.31
Birmingham City over 0.5 goals	60.9%	63.2%	69.5%	0.91×	1.58
Birmingham City under 0.5 goals	39.1%	36.8%	30.5%	1.21×	2.72
Birmingham City over 1.5 goals	24.1%	23.8%	30.0%	0.79×	4.21
Birmingham City over 2.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	9.4%	0.81×	13.07
Birmingham City over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.5%	2.2%	1.13×	39.99

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 1.5 in 1st half	94.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Birmingham City under 0.5 in 1st half	68.7%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Birmingham City over 0.5 in 1st half	31.3%	30.0%	—	—	3.34
Birmingham City over 1.5 in 1st half	5.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.32

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City scores equally in both	47.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Birmingham City scores more in 2nd half	32.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Birmingham City scores more in 1st half	19.6%	18.2%	—	—	5.49

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (away no bet)	60.0%	61.9%	61.1%	1.01×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	40.0%	38.1%	38.9%	0.98×	2.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City even goals	57.7%	56.9%	52.4%	1.09×	1.76
Birmingham City odd goals	42.3%	43.1%	47.6%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.1%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.9%	8.3%	—	—	12.03

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	55.3%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	44.7%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	48.0%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Burnley to score 2+ in a row	33.8%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Birmingham City to score 2+ in a row	18.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.4%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Burnley to score 3+ in a row	11.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Birmingham City to score 3+ in a row	4.0%	2.6%	—	—	38.38

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City corners (+3.5)	88.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Birmingham City corners (+2.5)	82.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Burnley corners (+3.5)	78.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Birmingham City corners (+1.5)	74.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Burnley corners (+2.5)	69.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Burnley corners (+1.5)	59.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Birmingham City corners (-1.5)	40.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Birmingham City corners (-2.5)	30.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Burnley corners (-1.5)	25.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Birmingham City corners (-3.5)	21.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Burnley corners (-2.5)	17.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Burnley corners (-3.5)	11.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	61.7%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
9-11 corners	22.8%	25.7%	—	—	3.90
12+ corners	15.5%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	89.2%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	84.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	78.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	70.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 8.5 corners	61.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 7.5 corners	51.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 7.5 corners	48.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 8.5 corners	38.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	29.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 10.5 corners	21.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	15.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	10.8%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.3%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.71
1-0	12.0%	11.5%	11.0%	1.04×	8.72
0-0	11.3%	11.5%	7.3%	1.57×	8.72
2-0	9.4%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
0-1	7.7%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-2	6.0%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.29
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.32
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
3-0	4.3%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.29
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (2nd half DNB)	61.4%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Birmingham City (2nd half DNB)	38.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley leading at HT (DNB)	64.1%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Birmingham City leading at HT (DNB)	35.9%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley or draw (1X)	76.0%	75.5%	70.9%	1.06×	1.32
Burnley or Birmingham City (12)	69.6%	69.6%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Birmingham City or draw (X2)	54.3%	52.7%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley or draw at HT	81.1%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Birmingham City or draw at HT	66.3%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Burnley or Birmingham City at HT	52.6%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley or draw (1UP)	76.0%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Birmingham City or draw (1UP)	54.3%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley or draw in 2nd half	76.7%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Birmingham City or draw in 2nd half	63.0%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Burnley or Birmingham City in 2nd half	60.2%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.7%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.3%	31.9%	—	—	3.13

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (DNB)	65.6%	67.3%	59.9%	1.12×	1.49
Birmingham City (DNB)	34.4%	32.7%	40.1%	0.82×	3.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to score first	52.8%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Birmingham City to score first	35.8%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	11.3%	9.6%	—	—	10.39

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	52.9%	51.3%	45.6%	1.12×	1.95
Both teams to score	47.1%	48.7%	54.4%	0.90×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.8%	41.6%	37.1%	1.12×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	32.9%	34.5%	39.9%	0.86×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	14.3%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	8.1%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.3%	89.0%	89.0%	1.00×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.7%	11.0%	11.0%	1.01×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.0%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.0%	25.3%	—	—	3.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.0%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Both score 2nd half only	20.7%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	11.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	3.3%	4.9%	—	—	20.43

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.7%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.3%	14.7%	—	—	6.78

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	53.2%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
A goal in each half	46.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.4%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
0-1 goals	31.1%	30.7%	25.9%	1.19×	3.26
4-6 goals	19.5%	20.2%	22.4%	0.90×	4.95
7+ goals	1.0%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.44

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to score exactly 0	39.1%	35.9%	30.5%	1.18×	2.78
Birmingham City to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Birmingham City to score exactly 2	17.2%	19.6%	20.6%	0.95×	5.11
Birmingham City to score 3+	6.9%	8.5%	9.4%	0.91×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to score exactly 1	34.7%	32.6%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Burnley to score exactly 0	25.1%	26.5%	22.4%	1.18×	3.77
Burnley to score exactly 2	24.0%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.29
Burnley to score 3+	16.2%	18.7%	16.1%	1.16×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.4%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Burnley leading at HT	33.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Birmingham City leading at HT	18.9%	16.1%	—	—	6.20

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley -1: 2	54.3%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Burnley -1: X	23.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Burnley -1: 1	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (0:1)	54.3%	51.4%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	23.0%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.13
Burnley (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	19.3%	1.26×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (0:2)	77.3%	79.4%	80.7%	0.98×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.2%	11.0%	11.3%	0.97×	9.09
Burnley (0:2)	8.5%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (0:3)	91.5%	92.7%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.9%	5.8%	4.8%	1.22×	17.25
Burnley (0:3)	2.6%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (0:4)	97.4%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.96
Burnley (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.10

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (1:0)	76.0%	78.6%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	15.1%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.85
Birmingham City (1:0)	8.9%	6.9%	11.7%	0.59×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley (2:0)	91.1%	94.0%	88.3%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.5%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.68
Birmingham City (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.3%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Halves equal	29.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to concede	60.9%	63.6%	69.5%	0.92×	1.57
Burnley clean sheet	39.1%	36.4%	30.5%	1.19×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley clean sheet in 1st half	68.7%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Burnley to concede in 1st half	31.3%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley clean sheet in 2nd half	57.0%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Burnley to concede in 2nd half	43.0%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 6.5 corners	88.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Burnley under 5.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Burnley under 4.5 corners	70.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Burnley over 2.5 corners	61.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Burnley under 3.5 corners	56.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Burnley over 3.5 corners	43.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Burnley under 2.5 corners	39.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Burnley over 4.5 corners	29.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Burnley over 5.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Burnley over 6.5 corners	11.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 3.5 goals	94.8%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Burnley under 2.5 goals	83.8%	82.2%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Burnley over 0.5 goals	74.9%	74.3%	77.6%	0.96×	1.35
Burnley under 1.5 goals	59.8%	58.7%	59.4%	0.99×	1.71
Burnley over 1.5 goals	40.2%	41.4%	40.6%	1.02×	2.42
Burnley under 0.5 goals	25.1%	25.7%	22.4%	1.15×	3.89
Burnley over 2.5 goals	16.2%	17.8%	16.1%	1.10×	5.63
Burnley over 3.5 goals	5.2%	7.8%	5.2%	1.50×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley under 1.5 in 1st half	88.0%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Burnley under 0.5 in 1st half	55.2%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Burnley over 0.5 in 1st half	44.8%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Burnley over 1.5 in 1st half	12.0%	9.8%	—	—	10.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley scores equally in both	38.3%	37.8%	—	—	2.64
Burnley scores more in 2nd half	36.7%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Burnley scores more in 1st half	25.0%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.9%	56.4%	48.7%	1.16×	1.77
Birmingham City (home no bet)	44.1%	43.6%	51.3%	0.85×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley even goals	53.1%	50.7%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Burnley odd goals	46.9%	49.3%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.2%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
HT 1-0	22.3%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	14.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	8.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
HT 2-0	6.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
Any other HT score	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.18

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley at HT / Burnley at FT	26.9%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Burnley at FT	16.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Birmingham City at HT / Birmingham City at FT	12.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Birmingham City at FT	10.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Burnley at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Birmingham City at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Birmingham City at HT / Burnley at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Burnley at HT / Birmingham City at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley to score last	53.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Birmingham City to score last	35.7%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	11.3%	9.0%	—	—	11.08

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.7%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Burnley to lead by 1 at any time	59.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Birmingham City to lead by 1 at any time	40.1%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Burnley to lead by 2 at any time	27.8%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
Birmingham City to lead by 2 at any time	12.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.51
Burnley to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Birmingham City to lead by 3 at any time	3.2%	1.6%	—	—	61.89

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City most corners	52.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Burnley most corners	36.0%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.0%	83.4%	83.3%	1.00×	1.20
1-3 goals	68.2%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-6 goals	67.9%	68.8%	72.8%	0.95×	1.45
2-5 goals	65.8%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.3%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.4%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	47.7%	48.5%	44.4%	1.09×	2.06
3-6 goals	40.0%	39.2%	47.2%	0.83×	2.55
3-5 goals	37.8%	39.2%	44.5%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	32.3%	35.2%	39.1%	0.90×	2.84
4-6 goals	19.5%	18.8%	22.4%	0.84×	5.31
4-5 goals	17.4%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.31
5-6 goals	7.6%	8.9%	8.2%	1.09×	11.27
7+ goals	1.0%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Burnley never behind	48.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Birmingham City never behind	29.2%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.5%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.5%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.7%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.3%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.9%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	91.4%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.7%	87.6%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	79.5%	77.3%	76.3%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	68.9%	66.3%	74.1%	0.90×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	59.0%	58.6%	51.6%	1.14×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	41.0%	41.4%	48.4%	0.85×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	31.1%	33.7%	25.9%	1.30×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	20.5%	22.7%	23.7%	0.96×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	11.3%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	9.4%	0.82×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.1%	4.6%	4.0%	1.15×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.0%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.7%	97.2%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.2%	92.4%	89.0%	1.04×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	74.2%	72.4%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	56.9%	55.8%	65.1%	0.86×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	43.1%	44.2%	34.9%	1.27×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	25.8%	27.6%	31.5%	0.88×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.8%	7.6%	11.0%	0.69×	13.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.3%	2.8%	4.2%	0.67×	35.57
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.0%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.5%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.4%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.6%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.5%	7.3%	—	—	13.62

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	84.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.6%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	60.4%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.6%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.4%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	15.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City not to score in both halves	86.5%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Burnley not to score in both halves	75.6%	78.5%	—	—	1.28
Burnley to score in both halves	24.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
Birmingham City to score in both halves	13.5%	14.5%	—	—	6.88

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	47.1%	50.7%	54.4%	0.93×	1.97
Only Burnley scores	27.8%	26.0%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Only Birmingham City scores	13.7%	11.0%	15.2%	0.73×	9.06
Neither team scores	11.3%	11.0%	7.3%	1.51×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.0%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	20.5%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.7%	17.5%	18.7%	0.93×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	11.9%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	11.3%	12.1%	7.3%	1.66×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.5%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.1%	4.5%	4.0%	1.12×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	38.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
3+ goals in 1st half	7.5%	7.3%	—	—	13.62

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	39.6%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
1 goal in 2nd half	33.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	26.4%	29.4%	—	—	3.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City not to win both halves	95.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Burnley not to win both halves	87.3%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Burnley to win both halves	12.8%	12.0%	—	—	8.30
Birmingham City to win both halves	4.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.15

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to win neither half	62.4%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Burnley to win either half	58.0%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Burnley to win neither half	42.0%	40.9%	—	—	2.45
Birmingham City to win either half	37.6%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City not to win to nil	86.3%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.14
Burnley not to win to nil	72.2%	75.3%	76.7%	0.98×	1.33
Burnley to win to nil	27.8%	24.7%	23.3%	1.06×	4.06
Birmingham City to win to nil	13.7%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.4%	27.7%	27.6%	1.00×	3.61
Burnley by 1	23.0%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.15
Birmingham City by 1	15.1%	17.0%	17.4%	0.98×	5.87
Burnley by 2	14.2%	11.8%	11.3%	1.04×	8.51
Burnley by 3+	8.5%	7.2%	8.1%	0.89×	13.90
Birmingham City by 2	6.5%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.91
Birmingham City by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.86