Burnley v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 17
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 12
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.21
Goals − xG
+2.18 – +1.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
20.9%
Draw
28.1%
Brentford win
51.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.70 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.11–2.17 | 1-2 10% | 64% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 0.82 xGBrentford 2.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rico Henry |
| 8' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Goal | Dango Ouattara |
| 12' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 16' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Laurent |
| 20' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josh Laurent |
| 23' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 24' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 33' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.95 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 43' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Laurent |
| 45' |
Burnley |
Hannibal Mejbri | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lyle Foster |
| 46' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 47' |
Brentford |
Michael Kayode | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 47' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 47' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Laurent |
| 59' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Goal | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 64' |
Burnley |
Maxime Estève | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 67' |
Burnley |
Chimuanya Ugochukwu | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago |
| 75' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristoffer Ajer |
| 76' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bashir Humphreys |
| 84' |
Brentford |
Romelle Donovan | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Henderson |
| 92' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rico Henry |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 94' |
Burnley |
Joe Worrall | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Loum Tchaouna |
| 96' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Jaidon Anthony AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Joe Worrall DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Lucas Pires DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.46 |
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Hannibal Mejbri MC | 87 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.58 |
| James Ward-Prowse MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.52 |
| Josh Laurent DMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Lyle Foster Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Florentino Luís Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ashley Barnes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.03 | 1.06 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Mathias Jensen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Hákon Valdimarsson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.63 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.68 |
| Rico Henry DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.61 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.36 | 0.00 | 1.39 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| Romelle Donovan Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Jordan Henderson Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |