Burnley v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.63 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.81 – +0.93
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
20.5%
Draw
29.0%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
50.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWLDWWWW last 10
scored 26
from 21.9 xG
conceded 9
from 13.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.97–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–1.78 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 0.81 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 9' |
 Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.42 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 9' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 19' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 24' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 27' |
Burnley |
Bashir Humphreys | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 31' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 42' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pascal Groß |
| 45' |
Burnley |
Florentino Luís | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Burnley |
Chimuanya Ugochukwu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bashir Humphreys |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 56' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 58' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florentino Luís |
| 58' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 59' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bashir Humphreys |
| 62' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 62' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 63' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 79' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yasin Ayari |
| 88' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yasin Ayari |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Zian Flemming FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Ward-Prowse DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.15 |
| Florentino Luís DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Bashir Humphreys DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Quilindschy Hartman DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marcus Edwards AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mike Trésor Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lucas Pires Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Wieffer DR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Diego Gómez AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Yasin Ayari DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.71 |
| Olivier Boscagli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Yankuba Minteh AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 0.58 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.08 | 0.53 |
| Jack Hinshelwood AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.79 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Carlos Baleba Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kaoru Mitoma Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |