Burnley v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 15
On target
0 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.27 – -1.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
28.1%
Draw
27.2%
Everton win
44.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.04–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.03–1.57 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 51% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 1.27 xGEverton 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Burnley |
Armando Broja | 0.17 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Burnley |
Josh Cullen | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Everton |
Beto | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 13' |
Everton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 18' |
Burnley |
Jacob Bruun Larsen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Armando Broja |
| 20' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Burnley |
Armando Broja | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 28' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 33' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 48' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 56' |
Burnley |
Jacob Bruun Larsen | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Edwards |
| 59' |
Burnley |
Jacob Bruun Larsen | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florentino Luís |
| 60' |
Burnley |
Florentino Luís | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kyle Walker |
| 61' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Iroegbunam |
| 63' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 65' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Burnley |
Hjalmar Ekdal | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Burnley |
Armando Broja | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Edwards |
| 75' |
Burnley |
Bashir Humphreys | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Burnley |
Bashir Humphreys | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Burnley |
Chimuanya Ugochukwu | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Edwards |
| 76' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Garner |
| 77' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Everton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Burnley |
Chimuanya Ugochukwu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 84' |
Everton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Everton |
Nathan Patterson | 0.17 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | James Garner |
| 95' |
Burnley |
Florentino Luís | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hjalmar Ekdal |
| 95' |
Everton |
Jake O'Brien | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Lucas Pires DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Josh Laurent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kyle Walker DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Marcus Edwards FWR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen FWL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Josh Cullen MC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Florentino Luís Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| Jaidon Anthony Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Zian Flemming Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mike Trésor Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight McNeil AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.88 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Tyler Dibling AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Beto FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thierno Barry Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nathan Patterson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |