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Burnley v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 3 February 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

2–2
1.00 – 1.29 xG
Shots
12 – 15
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 12
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.47
Goals − xG
+0.99 – +0.71
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.71.11.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'João Palhinha 16' — goalRodrigo Muniz 20' — goalDavid Datro Fofana 70' — goalDavid Datro Fofana 90' — goal
Burnley 1.01 xGFulham 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lyle Foster 4' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Vitinho 4' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Sander Berge 11' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Sander Berge 14' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Timothy Castagne 15' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)João Palhinha 16' — Goal (0.14 xG, From Corner)Rodrigo Muniz 20' — Goal (0.18 xG, Open Play)Willian 28' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Andreas Pereira 33' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Wilson Odobert 36' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Wilson Odobert 40' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Zeki Amdouni 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Aaron Ramsey 46' — Saved Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Josh Brownhill 46' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Harrison Reed 52' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Rodrigo Muniz 52' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Willian 55' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Tosin Adarabioyo 56' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Rodrigo Muniz 59' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Josh Brownhill 65' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Timothy Castagne 66' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Tosin Adarabioyo 69' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Willian 69' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)David Datro Fofana 70' — Goal (0.46 xG, Open Play)Willian 70' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Timothy Castagne 79' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)David Datro Fofana 90' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Burnley attacking right Fulham attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Burnley Lyle Foster 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Josh Brownhill
4' Burnley Vitinho 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Wilson Odobert
11' Burnley Sander Berge 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Vitinho
14' Burnley Sander Berge 0.08 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Josh Brownhill
15' Fulham Timothy Castagne 0.12 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
16' Fulham João Palhinha 0.14 From Corner Goal Andreas Pereira
20' Fulham Rodrigo Muniz 0.18 Open Play Right Foot Goal Antonee Robinson
28' Fulham Willian 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Rodrigo Muniz
33' Fulham Andreas Pereira 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Antonee Robinson
36' Burnley Wilson Odobert 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Josh Brownhill
40' Burnley Wilson Odobert 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
45' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vitinho
46' Burnley Aaron Ramsey 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Josh Brownhill
46' Burnley Josh Brownhill 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
52' Fulham Harrison Reed 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
52' Fulham Rodrigo Muniz 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
55' Fulham Willian 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Andreas Pereira
56' Fulham Tosin Adarabioyo 0.05 From Corner Saved Shot Andreas Pereira
59' Fulham Rodrigo Muniz 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Bobby Reid
65' Burnley Josh Brownhill 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot David Datro Fofana
66' Fulham Timothy Castagne 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Willian
69' Fulham Tosin Adarabioyo 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Andreas Pereira
69' Fulham Willian 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot João Palhinha
70' Burnley David Datro Fofana 0.46 Open Play Goal Lorenz Assignon
70' Fulham Willian 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Andreas Pereira
79' Fulham Timothy Castagne 0.14 Open Play Missed Shot Andreas Pereira
90' Burnley David Datro Fofana 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal

Players

Burnley

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Josh Brownhill MR 90 0 0 2 4 0.09 0.25 0.25
Sander Berge MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.06
Wilson Odobert ML 90 0 0 2 1 0.06 0.03 0.13
Vitinho DL 90 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.04 0.10
Lyle Foster FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.05
James Trafford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Lorenz Assignon DR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.46 0.01
Dara O'Shea DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Aaron Ramsey MC 67 0 0 1 0 0.15 0.00 0.15
Zeki Amdouni FW 67 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Hjalmar Ekdal DC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Maxime Estève Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
David Datro Fofana Sub 23 2 0 2 1 0.55 0.04 0.59
Johann Berg Gudmundsson Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Han-Noah Massengo Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fulham

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Timothy Castagne DR 90 0 0 3 0 0.39 0.00 0.48
Willian AML 90 0 0 4 1 0.21 0.12 0.34
João Palhinha DMC 90 1 0 1 1 0.14 0.02 0.21
Tosin Adarabioyo DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.58
Harrison Reed DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.27
Bernd Leno GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Antonee Robinson DL 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.28 0.49
Tim Ream DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Andreas Pereira AMC 88 0 1 1 6 0.10 0.45 0.49
Rodrigo Muniz FW 77 1 0 3 1 0.33 0.12 0.45
Bobby Reid AMR 77 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.34
Tom Cairney Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Armando Broja Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kenny Tete Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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