Burnley v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
3 – 27
On target
0 – 4
Shots in box
1 – 14
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 1.68
Goals − xG
-0.17 – -1.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
14.6%
Draw
17.7%
Liverpool win
67.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.04–2.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.94–2.51 | 0-2 10% | 67% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 0.17 xGLiverpool 2.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 6' |
 Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Loum Tchaouna |
| 8' |
Liverpool |
Milos Kerkez | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahima Konaté |
| 11' |
Liverpool |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.64 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 21' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 23' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 30' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Burnley |
Hjalmar Ekdal | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Quilindschy Hartman |
| 38' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 39' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 41' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 47' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Liverpool |
Conor Bradley | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 54' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 61' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 65' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Virgil van Dijk |
| 66' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 71' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 73' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 79' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 79' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahima Konaté |
| 86' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 92' |
Liverpool |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rio Ngumoha |
| 94' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Josh Laurent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Quilindschy Hartman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Lyle Foster FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Cullen MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Loum Tchaouna MR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Hannibal Mejbri Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florentino Luís Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Worrall Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.12 | 0.42 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.67 | 0.26 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.59 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.99 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Andrew Robertson Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.15 | 0.41 | 0.79 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Conor Bradley Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Jeremie Frimpong Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rio Ngumoha Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 |